Read the original text at 112.ua.
The former Georgian president, an ex-governor of Odesa region, and the current leader of the "Rukh Novykh Syl" party, Mikheil Saakashvili, was deported from Ukraine to Poland, from where he actually arrived in the country in September last year, dramatically breaking through Ukraine’s border.
During this period of time, the odious politician managed to do a lot of things in Ukraine. For almost half a year, he headed the protests near the building of the Verkhovna Rada, demanding changes in the electoral legislation, the creation of the Anti-Corruption Court, and the removal of people's immunity from parliamentary immunity.
Later this protest was transformed into something else, apparently, very personal - marches and rallies for the resignation of Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko, impeachment of President Petro Poroshenko, and the change of power in general.
By the way, a few weeks ago, Saakashvili has once again threatened Poroshenko with "people's anger," unless the head of state announced his resignation. Saakashvili has also planned to present the names of members of the so-called "alternative government "of the country.
The trials continued in parallel with Saakashvili's turbulent political activity. The politician sought the return of Ukrainian citizenship, which he was deprived of by the president (in July 2017), or at least the right to political asylum in Ukraine. The courts recognized the deprivation of Saakashvili's citizenship legal and did not give him the right to seek political asylum. State Border and Migration Service believed that, in fact, this was the reason for his recent deportation to Warsaw.
In addition, the politician was detained by the law enforcers, arguing that he was suspected of preparing a coup d'etat in Ukraine for the money of the runaway oligarch Serhiy Kurchenko. Saakashvili has repeatedly denied this. And also called for interrogations in the case of the shootings of Maidan activists in 2014.
Let us try to predict the main options for the further events.
The reaction of the public to expelling Saakashvili from the country, as well as his first statements from the territory of Poland, indicate that in the near future, most likely, a huge campaign will be launched to return the politician to Ukraine - legally or even possibly illegally, like it happened in September 2017.
"I love Poland, but my struggle field is in Ukraine and Georgia, and we will continue this struggle," Saakashvili said.
When asked whether he will try to go back to Ukraine, the politician replied: "No doubt! I think we will find a way how to do this absolutely legally. This power has little time. "
At the same time, Saakashvili considers that this situation is not a deportation, but a kidnapping.
By the way, his lawyer has already filed an application with the police.
Many politicians and public figures hold the opinion that in the matter of Saakashvili’s deportation, the State Border and Migration Service acted not by considering the law, but following the instructions of President Petro Poroshenko or his entourage to settle accounts with a political opponent.
"Such detaining a political opponent, a person is disgusting. Is it the standard of modern democracy and law enforcement?" Khatia Dekanoidze, ex-head of the National Police of Ukraine, noted.
"The arrest (or what it was) and the probable deportation is even worse than the so-called breakthrough of the border," said Vadym Trykhan, chairman of the European Movement of Ukraine.
"Saakashvili is not afraid to call a spade a spade. He is one of the few who calls Poroshenko a corrupt official and a thief. If the president had something to say to Saakashvili, he would not have organized the persecution, he would not have used all possible resources to eliminate the opponent... Extradition of Mikheil is a signal for us - the government is weak and cowardly. We must continue fighting, and we will definitely return Mikheil! "said the ex-deputy from the Bloc of Petro Poroshenko Yegor Firsov.
"I have a question for the head of the Bloc of Petro Poroshenko. You deported a person, who was suspected of committing grave and especially serious crimes in Ukraine, he was given suspicion, put in prison and summoned for interrogation. So are you going to apply to Poland for extradition or this crime is already solved? "asked the deputy of the Dnipropetrovsk regional council Andriy Smyrnov.
Last night, Saakashvili's supporters went to the presidential administration to protest against the deportation of their leader. This rally was not a large one, but it signaled that in the future there might be some other actions.
If Saakashvili, still cannot return to Ukraine with the help of the law or his supporters, it is likely that he will decide to continue his political activities outside of the country. That is, he will criticize the Ukrainian authorities in all possible European venues, urging world leaders to react.
The first steps in this direction have already been made. In a commentary to Bild, the politician called on the European Union and German Chancellor Angela Merkel to react to his deportation from Ukraine. "I was attacked in Kyiv cafe by people wearing masks. I was kidnapped, threatened and brought to Poland by private plane. Corrupted president Poroshenko is behind this. If the European Union, and especially Chancellor Angela Merkel, does nothing, Ukraine will break down. Poroshenko destroys this country, and he wants to take me away because I condemn the corruption," he told to the reporters.
By the way, we see that foreign officials are gradually becoming interested in the incident with Saakashvili. For example, former Assistant Secretary of Defense Michael Carpenter already wrote on his Twitter: "Bad for Ukraine and worse for Georgia."
At the same time, the EU press service notes in the commentary epravda.com.ua that European politicians are also monitoring the development of the situation around the deportation of Saakashvili and expecting compliance with the rule of law. "We continue to monitor the situation around Mikheil Saakashvili, and we hope that the rule of law, like the rights of Mikheil Saakashvili, will be observed," they say.
Another possible scenario after the deportation of Saakashvili might be his political oblivion in Ukraine. Under the current legislation, only a citizen of Ukraine has the right to conduct political activity in the country. A person without Ukrainian citizenship cannot claim any positions in big politics.
Supporters of Saakashvili will be forced to put forward a new leader and rally around him. It is also not a secret that not just Saakashvili alone stood behind protests near the Verkhovna Rada.
Hints on a continuation of resistance without Saakashvili could be read in the statements of the so-called Euro-optimistic deputies, who also supported these protests.
"Petro Poroshenko shot himself in the foot. He thinks that Saakashvili's expulsion will solve his problem of continuing his stay in power, and he will only unite his opponents. Poroshenko's problem is not only Saakashvili but pathological greed that… " People's Deputy Serhiy Leshchenko said.
"Those whom we managed to topple in 2013, have returned a year later; they bought the new owners of Bankova and Hrushevsky. The only and most correct thing to do is stop looking at their violated view on the state management. All of them must remain in the past. We need to create our own reality, our own future, and heroes," said People's Deputy Mustafa Nayem.
If the new leader does not grow stronger among Saakashvili's supporters, it is possible that the voices of other, older opponents of the current government will sound with renewed vigor. For example, the Fatherland leader Yulia Tymoshenko heads the presidential rating (according to surveys of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology). By the way, she also expressed her protest to the president in connection with Saakashvili’s deportation.
Anyway, now everyone is waiting for the reaction of the head of the state Petro Poroshenko. But will he comment on the situation? Most likely, no, because on the eve of the deportation of Saakashvili, the president has already stated in an interview with German Profil that the situation around the politician was out of his sphere of influence. "What happens with him (Saakashvili, ed.) is not the responsibility of the president, he can be expelled from the country, although I would not want that, but this is the work of the migration service and the border guards, and I do not want to influence it," the president said.
At the same time, Poroshenko added that Saakashvili is not a citizen of Ukraine or a Ukrainian politician at the moment, he violated the law and was convicted in Georgia.
September 22, 2017, Mostysky Court of the Lviv region found Saakashvili guilty of illegally crossing the border of Ukraine. Since January 2018, the District Administrative Court of Kyiv rejected the claim for compensation to the State Migration Service in recognizing him as a refugee. February 5, Kyiv Appeal Administrative Court repeatedly failed to satisfy Saakashvili's complaint on the decision of the State Migration Service to register documents on recognition him as a refugee or a person requiring additional protection.
That is, in accordance with these judicial decisions, Saakashvili’s stain in Ukraine was illegal, and therefore he was returned to the country from which they arrived.