Ukraine has officially started its parliamentary elections campaign. It would last for two months and end with early parliamentary elections. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky appointed them on July 21. Despite the fact that such a scenario has been discussed for a long time, political players feel great confusion.
The best proof of this is the lack of activity on the part of the main “energizer” of Ukrainian politics – Yulia Tymoshenko. Switching from one campaign to another is quite difficult for both financial and psychological reasons.
Approximately by June 10, party congresses and negotiations on the possible joint efforts in the elections will take place.
So, according to the Rating sociological group, Zelensky’s Servant of the People party is the undisputed leader of electoral popularity. 43.8% of those who intend to vote are ready to support Servant of the People.
At the same time, 10.5% of respondents are ready to vote for the Opposition Platform - For Life”, 8.8% for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc – Solidarity, 7.3% for Tymoshenko’s Batkivschyna, 5.1% for Strength and Honor party of Ihor Smeshko, 4.6% for Voice party of singer Svyatoslav Vakarchuk; 3.3% for Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko, 3.2% for Opposition bloc.
In addition, there are two important points. First: Servant of the People might win all over Ukraine, while its rivals localize fans in certain regions. For example, the Opposition Platform - For Life and the Opposition Bloc have strong positions in the southeastern regions, and other parties that retain chances of getting into parliament are concentrated in the central-western constituencies.
The second point: it is reported that Servant of the People party is the leader of the so-called "second choice." What does this mean? Another 11.4% of respondents who intend to vote are ready to support it in the event that their more preferable force is not participating in the elections. And Servant of the People gets the largest number of the transitional votes.
Under similar conditions, as well as on the stability of the present rating and the correctly conducted campaign, the Zelensky party has a chance to get more than 50% of the votes and form a single majority in parliament.
The head of state proposed to lower the electoral threshold from 5% to 3% and to abolish the majority election system. But since his initiative wasn’t supported, the elections would be held according to the old rules.
At first glance, it seems that there is very little time left before the elections (the CEC even complains that it will not have time to print the ballots). But some will balance these two months on the edge.
"Honeymoon" of Volodymyr Zelensky is still continuing.
“Servant of the People Party is a huge inflated soap bubble. For example, I don’t know anyone in it, except perhaps Dmytro Razumkov and Ivan Bakanov. What is the structure of this party? Who heads the regional offices? I don’t know. What ideology do they have? They say they are libertarian, but what do they mean?” political expert Kost Bondarenko comments.
The rating of Servant of the People will directly depend on the actions of President Zelensky. Taking into consideration his current communication with voters, he is campaigning as he tried to lead during the presidential elections – “for all the good and against all the bad,” that is, can be fewer specifics.
“At the same time, Zelensky’s idea about the referendum (regarding the format of negotiations with the Russian Federation) might mean hope to retain voters who are in suspense of peaceful coexistence with Russia,” Vitaliy Bala, director of the Situations Simulation Agency, said.
“Poroshenko will stay at the current level of 8-9%. The ex-president will play the anti-revenge card,” Vadym Karasiov, director of the Institute of Global Strategies, notes. But Andriy Zolotariov is convinced: “Poroshenko’s rating will start to grow if Zelensky’s rating falls. So far, only one thing is expected from Zelensky – he should restore justice and punish villains.”
According to experts, Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, the leader of the newly Golos created a party, shows a tendency to imitations. Last week, the frontman of Ocean Elzy music band started an official Instagram and started recording video messages. Volodymyr Zelensky also dabbles in a home television studio - he also maintains his own video diary.
Vakarchuk showed unprecedented growth from the actual zero to almost 5% in just one week. “The Golos party’s growth is very encouraging. A week after the announcement of its creation, it has already overcome the electoral threshold,” Bala says. Meanwhile, Igor Smeshko and his Strength and Honor party allegedly actively negotiate with UDAR party of Vitaliy Klitschko, we know about that from the insider sources.
And Andriy Zolotariov advises paying attention to the former Yanukovych’s party segment, where “unifying processes might take place if the Opposition Bloc and the Opposition Platform - For Life” unite their efforts or at least conclude a non-aggression pact.”