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The meeting of Kurt Volker and Petro Poroshenko, as well as the the law on reintegration (which was voted in two weeks) are strongly connected. And not only the law on reintegration is connected with the meeting, but also the question of peacekeepers. After a meeting with the President of Ukraine, Volker will meet with Russia’s Surkov. US President Trump has not yet signed the law on sanctions adopted by the Congress, and this is against the backdrop of uncertainty concerning Donbas and Minsk agreements. This is what they dould discus, because the new law introduces a new legal regime for the military operation. Therefore, Ukrainian leadership, firstly, will talk about what it gives to Ukraine (in terms of the Minsk process, the Norman format and, in general, the resolution of Donbas conflict).
Few days ago, President Poroshenko has visited Avdiyivka and said: "I will do everything to bring the peacekeepers to Donbas." Putin said that he actually did not make any concessions. So far, the draft Russian resolution is in the UN Security Council, and now we have to understand what the US position is: they will push us to some sort of compromise, or they just postpone the question of peacekeepers.
The meeting between Volker and Surkov brings certain risks for Ukraine. Perhaps, the United States will take a position toward a compromise on peacekeepers from the Russian Federation. There is a tough position of Russia, and there is a tough position of Ukraine. It is very difficult to draw a line between surrender and compromise in diplomacy and politics, especially in the context of the war.
As for general risks. The Minsk process unfolds on the "pushmi-pullyu" principle. Germany is forming its government, France is busy with its internal affairs, the Norman format is still "frozen". If we analyze military information, there is no active military action today. Fortunately, there are almost no injured people. Today no one wants to exacerbate, especially Putin, because of internal political issues, because of the electoral campaign. That's why there are a lot of uncertainties and risks, but Volker does his job. Only the United States are currently dealing with this problem, and I say once again that the law of reintegration might be risky – we need to be careful. We can give any formulations and new definitions, but we must ask ourselves: do these new sharp definitions stimulate the return of Donbas or preserve the situation, exacerbate it.