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The scandal provoked by revelatory confessions of Ukraine’s fugitive MP and oligarch Olexander Onishchenko, has received a "second wind" in the Verkhovna Rada: MPs are trying to create a committee for the investigation of corruption voiced by Onishchenko. Someone even says about the impeachment of the president. "Onishchenko tapes" are compared with the "Melnychenko tapes." Should we expect for some shocking news?
A clear political orientation of charges of Olexander Onishchenko does not mean that the reason for their appearance was the politics as it was in 2001 (the opposition of government and the opposition).
"We understand that now, Mr. Onishchenko is in a situation where he needs to shift responsibility from himself for the wild corruption schemes that have been introduced to him in a relationship with"Ukrgasdobycha," said executive director of the "Transparency International Ukraine" Yaroslav Yurchyshyn. “Once these patterns have been eliminated, "Ukrgasdobycha" began to show serious profit in a very short period of time so we understand that the guilt of Mr. Onishchenko, if not proved, it is obvious... and he tries to equalize the situation, opening up dirt, which has any politician," he added.
"Maybe he was trying by threats and compromising facts to achieve the investigation termination, - says Director of the Center for Applied Political Studies “Penta” Volodymyr Fesenko. - But I think the investigation is far from gone and gained wide public scale and it cannot be stopped without consequence when he convinced that it is impossible to influence the threats, he decided to make these strong statements."
According to the director of the Institute of Global Strategies Vadim Karasev, "Geopolitics is present here, have any implications Corporate Business interests, disassembly, they have serious geopolitical projection, but it did not dispute the politicians."
However, geopolitical footprint in the scandal is still there. Yaroslav Yurchyshyn is sure Onishchenko activation is associated with the same, and that the activation of Yanukovych, and militants in the ATO. Due to the results of the elections in the United States, taking into account the situation in the EU (including the elections in several large countries of the European Union), Ukraine is becoming more open to attacks, primarily aimed at destabilizing the situation in the country. And RF uses its dependent people to undermine the country.
Political scientist Taras Chornovil does not rule out trace of Moscow in the statements of Onishchenko. After compromising was voiced and published, not when Onishchenko was deprived of immunity, but after his visit to Moscow. It is also correlated with the charges of high treason, voiced by Ukraine’s Security Service.
Perhaps the Russian side really took the opportunity to destabilize Ukrainian politicians. But the arrogant attitude of the Kremlin technologists to Ukraine can play against them.
For example, as Taras Chornovil pointed out, the confessions of Alexander Onishchenko, that for the opportunity to run for the Verkhovna Rada, staying outside Ukraine (at the training camp for the preparation of the team for the Olympic Games), he had to pay a certain official of 6 million US dollars, is absurd.
The expert also does not believe that Onishchenko’s revelation concerning corruption agreements of the President: "Poroshenko will not negotiate with the man that is his personal enemy, who supports and has always supported Yulia Tymoshenko."
And absolutely absurd hints of embezzlement of IMF funds, which lie on the accounts with the NBU and the main shareholders of the Fund monitor their spending. And the newspaper The Independent, where scandalous article was published, belongs to the Russian oligarch Lebedev and now, in the words of Taras Chornovil, not very often cited in the United Kingdom.
In summary, taking into account all of these and other absurdities, calculated on an audience not familiar with the subject, says Taras Chornovil, it is unlikely the scandal will have an impact or consequences outside Ukraine.
Volodymyr Fesenko wonders whether Onishchenko said half-truth, thickening paints. The expert expressed the opinion that it is unlikely in the Verkhovna Rada today there is direct bribery of deputies. Rather, the issues are addressed in the form of registration of business or other interests in return for a particular position in the voting. Moreover, if earlier there were additional payments system in fractions, but now it is not.
Revelations of Onishchenko, according to Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, could remain half-truth: "It is unlikely that he will give documented evidence of Ukrainian law enforcement agencies, because it is risky for him probably all will remain so-called half-truth:. Announced, but not proven, has gone into discussion and actually begins to prove itself. "
One of the reasons may be fears of Olexander Onishchenko for himself, because, as said Fesenko, "if someone accused of political corruption, but said that he was handing out money, it could be the subject for the charges against himself, he may become a defendant in this case."
Speaking about the versions, background and motives of scandal with Onishchenko, the experts agree on one thing: fast catastrophic shocks Ukrainian politicians films fugitive oligarch cannot promise.
Scandal with Onishchenko, said Fesenko, is accumulating negative information: "Offshore scandal charges according to the NBU, now these... Cope whether the immune president system and the country with these accusations, scandals, whether the exposure of the immune system enough to where the question is open?" But the disaster did not happen.
Especially scandal with Onishchenko may be beneficial to Poroshenko. This version was suggested by Chornovil: "You will laugh, but the main beneficiaries in this compromising campaigns are not Tymoshenko and opponents of Poroshenko, but Poroshenko himslef!" First, all politicians are beginning to be treated equally, and those who spread the discrediting also receive its share of negativity. Secondly, as a result of such an active campaign of any charges by the opposition, even if they are fit and proper, not to reduce the rating of the president. Furthermore, "now because of the enormous campaign against Poroshenko that comes with autumn, his approval rating, according to various sources, from September to December grew by 4%," he says.
Vadim Karasev claimed that the scandal would not have the consequences. According to the expert, "the situation here is different than with the so-called Melnychenko’s tapes. Then, in case of impeachment, the then Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko could become a president, around him was a group of center-right National Democratic politicians and parties." This was ensured continuity of power that has saved Ukraine from the collapse, and other negative consequences. Now this elite is not, and Ukraine more vulnerable.
Perhaps, therefore, the main geopolitical players are hardly interested in that, pushing the pedal of these statements of Onishchenko, to force the issue of care of the authorities. "Even, perhaps, Russia is unlikely to hurry to use these materials in order to eliminate the current president - suggests the expert - although as a coercive tool to any concessions, as a factor of destabilization will be used."
At one time Melnychenko’s tapes have changed political circles and the worldview of citizens of Ukraine. Onishchenko’s tapes, with all the pathos, could not be called the "bomb".
In a private conversation, discussing the scandal Onishchenko, one expert suggested that the resonance peak will last until Friday of this week. Electronic declarations were hearing not longer than that, and that information was much more painful. If the Verkhovna Rada creates a committee to investigate the statements of Onishchenko, perhaps, the theme will last some time longer.