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Lull before the election: What results race leaders can expect?

Author : Serhiy Bykov

Despite the complaint of MPs to the Constitutional Court regarding the illegality of snap elections, they are likely to take place on July 21
10:30, 6 June 2019

Open source

With this complaint, opponents of the president Zelensky are trying to block the elections process. Nevertheless, the CEC began it, registers candidates and prepares for election day. The stories of individual politicians about the postponement of elections are of exceptional conspiracy. After all, the election process that has begun cannot be stopped.

In this light, it is important to see how the parties are involved in the election campaign. Who runs for the sake of participation, and who plans to win.

"Social Monitoring" Center showed what results the party achieved in May. Their last case study allows us to compare how the support changed during the month.

Four parties are guaranteed to be in the next parliament: "Servant of the People", "Opposition Platform - For Life", "European Solidarity" and "Batkivshchyna".

The parliamentary election leaders missed the first week of the campaign. Because of this, the alignment of forces has not changed. And the ratings at the end of May almost do not differ from the beginning of the month. True, the party "Servant of the People" managed to increase 1%. A prerequisite for the growth rate of the Zelensky party is parliament’s lethargy. People see that the Verkhovna Rada is trying to counteract the president and does not support his initiatives.

40.9% are ready to vote for the presidential party. In early May, the "Servant of the People" had a rating of 39.9%.

11.1% of voters plan to vote for the "Opposition Platform - For Life", which is headed by Yuriy Boyko, Vadym Rabinovich and Viktor Medvedchuk. During the month, their support has not changed significantly. Their main ideas are the implementation of the Minsk agreements, negotiations with the leaders of LDNR, the resumption of cooperation with Russia. Their ideas are supported in the east and south of Ukraine. One of the initiatives voiced by Viktor Medvedchuk is a return to the purchase of Russian gas directly. And not through the European gaskets, as it happens in recent years.

The minimal decline is demonstrated by the former Petro Poroshenko’s Bloc, which is now called “European solidarity”. The name is symbolic, the party continues the trends of the presidential campaign of Petro Poroshenko. The key difference is that the "EU" is attached to the "army, language, faith". As was seen at the congress of the renewed party, they are trying to appropriate all the achievements on the European integration front. Although the Association Agreement with the EU was signed by Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs conducted the pre-emptive preparation for obtaining a visa-free regime under the chairmanship of Kostyantyin Gryshchenko and Leonid Kozhara.

Related: First candidates from Kyiv's single-mandate constituencies registered: Who are they?

Parliamentary campaign of "Batkivschina" is different from others. First of all, it concerns the positioning. When other parties declare their opposition to Zelensky - Tymoshenko lends a helping hand. The party leader suggests that the parliament agree on an appointment under the presidential quota and return justice to the tariff sphere. Yulia Tymoshenko will qualify for the post of prime minister if Batkivshchyna enters the coalition. Today, such a union looks the most natural, although not uncontested. Today, 9.3% of voters are planning to vote for “Batkivschyna”. The party can significantly improve the result. Of course, in terms of a calculated election campaign.

The party of Svyatoslav Vakarchuk as well as Anatoly Grytsenko and Igor Smeshko also have chances to get into the parliament. Today, the parties are at the entry barrier. 4.9% are ready to vote for the party of the former head of the Security Service of Ukraine, and 4.9% for the party of the Colonel. Both parties work in the same electoral field and crush it. Together, these parties under the leadership of Igor Smeshko can get about 7%, but competing, they risk losing the race.

The outlook for the party of Svyatoslav Vakarchuk is more optimistic. At the beginning of May, only 0.9% were ready to vote for the it, and today it is already 3.3%. The party has not yet announced any conceptual ideas and is trying to conduct a campaign "like Zelensky". If the party does not make loud mistakes, it can count on overcoming the 5 percent barrier.

The material used data from the rolling study of the Social Monitoring Center during the periods: April 30 - May 10; May 15-19; May 15-23; 15-31.05. During each wave, 2100 respondents aged 18 years and older were interviewed, using a personal interview method on a standardized questionnaire.

Related: Former U.S. State Secretary offered Russia to hold another referendum in Crimea, - Russia's Foreign Minister

Related: Risks for economy of Ukraine in 2019

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