Undoubtedly, the two finalists of the presidential race are in the spotlight. To a lesser extent, Yulia Tymoshenko is in the center of the public attention, and the rest of the candidates are almost forgotten. And while most of them were technical candidates or used the presidential elections as a stepping stone for the parliamentary elections, scheduled for autumn 2019, the others really seemed to get the victory.
In any case, candidate Hennadiy Balashov, who took the 14th place with a rating of 0.17%, made a real hysteria on his Twitter page. “Everyone who voted for Zelensky from the 5.10 party (party of Balashov, - ed.), go to f*ck yourself, d*ckheads and rats... Thanks to everyone who supports 5.10 party, and voted for Zelensky. Oh my wise man,” Balashov fulminated. Later, the politician added that “5.10 party ceases its activities,” and he himself leaves for America. However, after a week on the air of one of the Ukrainian TV channels, Balashov commented on the situation with pensions and other topical issues.
And therefore, those candidates, who have entered at least the top ten of the presidential rankings, are tuned for an active struggle. Currently, they fight for the parliamentary elections. The only exception is Yuriy Tymoshenko, “clone” of Yulia Tymoshenko. The game of this figure has already been played.
“Our struggle is not over, it is just one of the missed chances. We still have the opportunity to implement our program: I mean the next parliamentary elections,” Yulia Tymoshenko said on the night after the first round. She did not become the president, she hoped for creating a parliamentary coalition and getting the post of the prime minister.
However, one faction cannot form a coalition. The latest ratings of political parties, as of March, highlight Zelensky’s Servant of the People party first place - 26.4%. While the rating of Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna is 18.2%, Poroshenko’s Solidarity - 12.7%, Opposition Platform - For Life - 12.7%, Civilian Position of Anatoliy Hrytsenko - 11%, Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko - 6.4%. Even taking into account the majority, most likely the coalition will consist of at least three players.
A lot of events might happen in the next six months: in particular, the Servant of the People party might lose its rating, some new party might gain it.
Power and Honor party of Ihor Smeshko might become this newcomer. Not less phenomenal is the dissonance between the popularity of Smeshko and the complete unrecognizability of his party. The leader’s popularity, as a rule, does not automatically shift to his political power. Some media assure that under the presidency of Volodymyr Zelensky, Smeshko might become the Minister of Defense or the head of the Security Service.
Still, Ihor Smeshko has got fewer votes than Anatoliy Hrytsenko (6.9% vs. 6.04%). Smeshko and Hrytsenko shared the same electoral field, the profiles of their voters are somewhat similar. But Hrytsenko’s Civil Position party is approaching to the parliamentary with much more powerful ratings. Political scientist Oleksandr Solontay praises Hrytsenko for his “presidential team,” which he unveiled before the first round.
Political expert Kyrylo Sazonov believes that ex-presidential candidate Oleg Lyashko (who ranked the seventh) begins to repeat his tricks. His “hysterics are not that catchy as a few years ago,” Sazonov writes in his blog. “The repertoire of the main “radical” is getting old; it has not been updated for a long time. The same artists, the same director, standard cry and empty promises with senseless threats...”
But if Lyashko, Hrytsenko, Tymoshenko and, undoubtedly, Yuriy Boyko from Opposition Platform – For Life, who ranked fourth, may keep calm about their stay in the parliament, then everyone, who turned out to be below the seventh position, does not have such confidence.
The majority of candidates did not cope with their task – from Olga Bogomolets to Valentyn Nalyvaychenko, from Illia Kyva to Serhiy Taruta. The fate of most of them is just to remain on the periphery of political life. Or to hope for being included into the list of some political force.
Someone else, though, has a chance to build his own party. For example, Roman Bezsmertny has created Movement +380 party, which has been registered for elections, and not this force is making the first steps in politics. But, as political expert Andriy Yusov says in a media interview, the main problem of Bezsmertny is that he is “not an independent player.” And here a closed circle of a certain kind is observed. Independence without reliance on significant financial resources makes it difficult for politicians to enter the first league. But non-independence, multiplied by oligarchic means, does not make it easier to get into big politics.
Let us recall one of the most farcical of the candidates, who lost the first round. Of course, this is about Roman Nasirov, former head of Ukraine’s State Fiscal Service, who came in last in the presidential rating – 2,500 people voted for him. After completing the campaign, this candidate has plunged into litigation processes and is now suing the illegal actions of the Cabinet and doctor-cardiologist Maksym Sokolov. Still, participating in the presidential election adds a lot of courage to the campaign participants.
In the meantime, if we talk about a future parliamentary campaign, not only the people who took part in the presidential elections would be influential. There are other representatives of the establishment, which in the autumn would play a significant role. For example, Ukrainian MP Volodymyr Groysman.
Having sworn in the Constitution, Zelensky soon realizes that in order to exercise his powers, he would be forced to rely on parliament and the government. Undoubtedly, part of the MPs would side the new head of state. But part is not the majority. Without the support of the Verkhovna Rada, the new president would not be able to fill those vacancies in the Cabinet, which relate to his quota. That means that the success of Zelensky's first steps would depend directly on his ability to negotiate with Groysman.
Therefore, Groysman is holding the gold share in his hands. But would Groysman betray Poroshenko? And if he does, what will be the price of the deal? Extending his stay in the PM’s office? But this office might belong to Yulia Tymoshenko, as some sources say. According to social surveys of Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, Groysman, not Tymoshenko, led the March polls concerning the next head of government after the presidential election.
However, let’s not forget that in the fall of 2018, Groysman has intensified the preparation of his own party (with somewhat pretentious name – Vinnytsia European Strategy) to parliamentary elections.