Gasoline and diesel fuel getting more expensive: No price reduction yet

Author : Olena Holubeva

Source :

The rise in prices for gasoline and diesel fuel, which we noticed in Ukraine in September, continues against the backdrop of rising oil prices in world markets
20:42, 14 November 2017

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112 Agency

Prices on the stalls of Ukrainian filling stations continue to brake the records: only during the last weekend prices for all types of fuel went up by 10-60 kopeks / liter. Experts do not yet see the prerequisites for lowering the price of fuel: according to their forecasts, up to the end of November the liter of gasoline may grow by another 1 UAH, and diesel fuel - by about 50 kopecks. And official exchange rate of hryvnia against US dollar is 27 UAH per 1 USD.

Over the past weekend, gasoline and diesel fuel at Ukrainian gas stations rose in price by 10-60 kopecks / liter. The prices were increased by all the largest retail chains: AMIC, SOCAR, Avtotrans, Parallel, KLO, Ukrgazvydobuvannia, Narodna, Katral, Tatneft, Quorum, Mango. This is reported by Enkorr with reference to the data of A-95 Consulting Group. The average cost of of A-92 and A-95 gasoline increased by 13 kopecks / liter - to 26.76 UAH / liter and to 27.49 UAH / liter, respectively. The price of gasoline A-95 + increased by 17 kopecks / liter - to 28.58 UAH / liter. The cost of diesel fuel as of November 13 was 25.28 UAH / liter (+8 kopecks / liter). In the OKKO chain only over the weekend prices were raised by 50 kopecks / liter and now it offers gasoline A-92 at 28.49 UAH / liter, A-95 - at 29.49 UAH / liter, A-95 + - 30.49 UAH / liter, DT - for 26,99 UAH / liter.

As reported, the rise in prices for gasoline and diesel fuel began on September 8, and by the end of the month, prices for a liter of gasoline A-95 at some gas stations reached 27.99 UAH, which, according to experts, was a record value. In total, from September 7 to November 13, the average price of A-92 gasoline rose by 2.97 UAH / liter, A-95 - by 2.90 UAH / liter, A95 + by 2.87 UAH / liter, and DT added 3, 37 UAH / liter. As is known, in connection with the situation, the Antimonopoly Committee is conducting a study of the market of light oil products searching for the presence of anticompetitive concerted actions of market participants.

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Experts note that the only reason for the increase of fuel prices in retail is their increase in wholesale trade, which happened due to the increase ofin oil prices in the world. "Quotations of early November were very high, for example, they reached $ 627 / ton for gasoline, which is $ 70, or more than 10% higher than October levels ($ 557 per ton on average). In equivalent, this growth is more than 1.5 UAH per liter of gasoline and 70 kopecks per liter of diesel fuel, which is why gasoline prices were the first to respond to the rise in world quotes," told director of the " A-95 Consulting Group " Serhiy Kuyun.

"On the Ukrainian border, the calculated indicative prices for A-95 gasoline, according to the PsycheaFuel system, rose 3.3% only for the last month, and for diesel fuel the growth is 2.3%." This creates prerequisites for retail growth, " the director of Scientific and Technical Center says.

According to him, the price of oil on the world market has pulled European quotes, to which all export of petroleum products from Belarus and Russia is tied. As you know, the Ukrainian market of automotive fuel is dependent on imports, especially from Belarus, therefore it is sensitive to any fluctuations. In our country there are only two refineries: Kremenchug ("Ukrtatnafta") and the state Shebelinsky GPP (part of the "Naftogaz of Ukraine" structure).

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The main factors that influence the growth of crude oil prices in the world market are: a decrease in production in the OPEC countries and in Russia. We note that investors expect an extension of the agreement on the reduction of oil production by a number of states (OPEC +) at a meeting of the oil and energy ministers of the 24 member states in Vienna on November 30. The aggravation of the military-political situation in the Middle East also influences the price. Traders are concerned about the prospect of failures in the supply of raw materials from Saudi Arabia due to the undermining of the oil pipeline on the site in Bahrain. The explosion on the pipeline took place on Friday, November 10. The authorities of Bahrain believe that it occurred as a result of "extremist actions". Bahrain's foreign minister, Khaled al-Khalifa, accused Iran of undermining the pipeline. The Iranian Foreign Ministry denied the charges.

As of November 13, the price of Brent oil, with delivery condition in January (futures contracts), was $ 63.55 per barrel. WTI crude oil (with delivery in December) cost 56.77 dollars per barrel, which is much higher than in the end of September, when the mark of $ 52 per barrel was overcomed - the highest price for the last two years.

The increase in quotations is very significant to be unnoticed for the completely dependent on the import Ukrainian market, Kuyun stresses. "It adds nervousness to the instability of the exchange rate, it jumps literally every day, moreover in different directions, and for importers it is a bad signal," the expert says.

"The exchange rate of the hryvnia against the dollar and the euro does not give us confidence, and every 10 kopecks of losses in the course is plus 8 kopecks in price per liter of fuel. Delaying the next tranche of financial assistance to Ukraine does not inspire optimism about strengthening the national currency, "agrees Serhiy Sapegin.

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In the current situation, the decline in prices for gasoline and diesel fuel is not expected, experts say. According to the forecasts, by the end of November they can grow by another UAH 1 per liter of petrol in retail and 50 kopecks per liter of diesel fuel. "I do not think that the gas stations will show the entire growth potential of UAH 1.5 / liter, but by the end of November, gasoline will likely increase by UAH 1 per liter. On diesel fuel, the increase should not exceed 50 kop / liter. There is a possibility that prices may change direction, but in any case, our market has already chosen the trend to increase, and now it will take time for it to turn around, "Kuyun said.

Sapegin also believes that until the end of the month, gasoline will not fall in price. He also forecasts an increase of at least UAH 1 per liter of gasoline in retail by the end of November. Then growth may stop due to the seasonal factor, the expert said: "It's a matter of winter, when the volumes of motor fuel consumption are traditionally declining."

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