S&P: Russia can become leader among debtor countries due to population aging
Russia risks becoming leader on level of leverage, which can reach 262% of GDP due to population aging in 2050
Russia risks becoming a leader on the level of leverage, which can reach 262% of GDP in 35 years, in the absence of solution to the problem of an aging population and rising social expenditures.
It is reported by Unian with reference to the S&P international rating agency.
"S&P predicts that the total population of Russia will decrease by 10% in 2050 to 129 million people, the proportion of older people aged over 65 will rise to 21% from 13%, while the working age group will fall to 61% from 70%", reads the message.
According to agency estimations, the proportion of "age-related" expenses will grow steadily over the next 35 years to 19% of GDP in 2050 from 13% in 2015.
"This trend points to the deterioration of the budgetary position of Russia in the long term. Our analysis shows that in the absence of expenditure containment policies and structural reforms, the volume of Russian government debt could rise to 262% of GDP in 2050 and become one of the highest in the world ", the report says.
This will put downward pressure on the ratings in the medium and long term, which in this scenario will remain in the speculative category during the whole period up to 2050.
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