Considering that a longtime enforced military presence is expected in Baltic and Black Sea regions, there is a major risk of incidents between armed forces of Alliance and Russia. This is stated in the latest research “NATO and Russia relations: Latvian interests in the context of mal frames and transformation of relations”, performed by the Latvian Institute of International Affairs (LIIA), reports EurAsia Daily.
According to the experts one of the most discussed issues is now the need to avoid local incidents to escalate into large ones. The most probable aim of Russian military jets and ships drawing closer to NATO borders is to show Russia does not want other countries’ military units come close to its borders.
Experts say that such actions from Russia can be explained by a strategic objective to seek a new agreement with NATO and its members, providing ANTO aircrafts and ships approach warning or event prohibiting to approach Russian territory at some specified distance. However the research suggests that in this case the attempts to make terms with Russia most likely would lead to restriction of movement for the Alliance members between themselves.
In view of the fact that any potential agreements between Russia and NATO or its members most probably will aggravate Alliance positions, the development of a new bilateral or multilateral regulation is hardly probable.
According to the experts, it is reasonable to build and develop informal channels for communication between NATO and Russia in order to avoid incidents and conflicts. Apart from that a higher level of coordination between NATO-states is crucial.
Recall that earlier NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg announced that NATO-Russia relations should ground on “defense and dialogue”. He also stressed that Moscow stopped being a strategic partner for NATO, however the parties are not in the state of cold war.