Frozen in mid-stride of the resignation Prime Yatsenyuk still restrained in the chair. At least until September. However, the Parliament gave a expressed dissatisfaction with the work of the Cabinet, members of the government have provided immunity and plunged into talk of reformatting the coalition.
This was preceded by two days (including nights) of exhausting consultations, the President called for an appeal to leave and two resonance retirement in the prosecutor's office. By outward appearances, "rebellious" coalition faction suggested that the vote did not gather. But late in the Tuesday’s afternoon there were signals from the Block of Petro Poroshenko. After the President's address with an appeal to the Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin and the Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk to resign even very hesitant of "Batkivshchyna", "Samopomich", Radical Party of Lyashko believed in the probability of leaving the government on 16 February. Or pretended to believe.
The action has found a tragic hue. While Yatsenyuk with anguish reported to the sidelines and in the hall were shamelessly excessive consultation. After a new government - a coalition and updated. As soon as the doors of the session hall were opened, faction leaders openly talked about "trics”.
It is unlikely that they believed to each other. But when you start playing in the resignation of the government simply could not turn back.
As a result, giving voice for unsatisfactory assessment of performance, BPP faction, according to the director of the Ukrainian Institute of analysis and management policy Ruslan Bortnyk, lacked 22 votes in the most critical moment. How, by the way, and the "Opposition bloc".
"The Parliament has played a play, - says Ruslan Bortnyk, - which had as key causes of political technology". In particular, with such a maneuver the president could distance itself from the Cabinet, that accumulated a huge negative rating. "Now Peter Poroshenko and his supporters have free hands, he is not responsible for the government and will argue, "we voted for the resignation," the expert believes. The second motive was the desire still to leave Arseniy Yatsenyuk. He is convenient, totally in control, and obedient with his rating he is not dangerous for politicians...
Especially when you consider that we have a parliamentary-presidential republic and the prime minister is the dominant figure, if he is independent.
BPP faction leader Yurii Lutsenko, just coming from the audience, mentioned that Yatsenyuk had "a lot to understand".
Thus, Poroshenko receives more obedient, sensitive to influences from outside the head of government. In exchange, the president had to "pass" the Attorney General Victor Shokin. According to unconfirmed information, he wrote a letter in response to the call Poroshenko (which brings to mind the phrase "loss of confidence in the president," which uses Vladimir Putin). But the public prosecutor at the moment was on vacation. That only increases the ambiguity of "surrender". At any time you can replay. Victor Shokin might really go away, but the president held a political technology campaign for Western partners. On the one hand, he seems to put pressure on the government and acted as a rider in white. On the other, forced the Attorney General, in which also had a high negative rating, especially among Western partners, to resign. This resignation partly to restore the confidence of the president. The change of shape does not change anything in this post, as nominated by the president anyway. Bortnyk does not exclude Turchynov nor Yuriy Lutsenko as candidates.
In reality, the only possible resignation is resignation of Deputy Prosecutor General Vitaliy Kasko.
Day of reckoning
Back in the hall representatives of the factions made it clear that the appetite comes with eating. RPL faction leader, Oleh Lyashko, said the need to dismiss the head of the National Bank Valeria Gontareva. In response, Yuriy Lutsenko has said on the sidelines of the government's renewal under the auspices of Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
The leader of the faction "Batkivshchyna" Yulia Tymoshenko, and the representative of the faction BPP Mustafa Nayem independently declared about agreements between Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Petro Poroshenko with the oligarchs: Ihor Kolomoisky, Rinat Akhmetov and Serhiy Lyovochkin. Yulia Tymoshenko disclosed a secret: for refusing to vote in favor of the resignation of the prime minister they allegedly offered $ 1 million.
Ruslan Bortnyk believes that "agreement" can be traced by a point reformatting of the Cabinet: "If there is vice-premier of the BPP, we can say that the process has been completed".
Quest for the jungle
An extremely delicate moment: Poroshenko clearly stated that he sees the new government, only on the basis of the current coalition, and from people are tired the election. Now, if the so-called small faction of the coalition will resent the president will be forced to dissolve the Verkhovna Rada, but will do everything to make it look like a forced move.
But he had underestimated his opponents. Yulia Tymoshenko has said the de facto coalition of large fractions of BPP and the "People's Front" and "fragments" of the "Party of Regions" ( "The opposition bloc" and deputy groups). At the same time she did not lead the "Batkivshchyna" of the democratic coalition, realizing what this means. Approximately the same situation happened to "Samopomich". They will be joined by RPL.
The root of the crisis lies in the government's crisis coalition. And vote on February 16 only worsened coalition crisis. The expert expects demarches by the "Samopomich" and "Batkivshchyna". And you should pay attention that these fractions have no other chance to beat the system, as all the same to provoke early parliamentary elections. Experts suggest the use of elements of street democracy: "If the system cannot be reformatted by top permutations of people in chairs, more will appear wanting to reformat it by pressure and street protests." They understand that if everything goes according to the president’s plan, it is likely to be voted a constitutional judicial reform and decentralization that will give the local government in the president's hands and control of the courts for at least 2 years.
Therefore, peace with the rebel factions is be possible. So, it will work, but it's hard to say with what methods. With the "Batkivshchyna", which has already announced a review of its minister, most likely, it will be difficult, as Yulia Tymoshenko February 16 could qualify for the premiership, and therefore she is very disappointed.
We can also expect that the RPL, without losing anything, can immersed in its native element - a street democracy. Moreover, the core of the anti-government opposition in parliament is not yet created, it will be very fast. However, the radicals could, hypothetically, to arrange positions in the GPU, and even with the NBU. However, sharply criticizing the president, Oleh Lyashko made it clear that he would not discuss the "portfolio" of options.
"I will not give up without a fight"
A new turn in the story could be very dismissal of Arseniy Yatsenyuk, as it was at the beginning of his tenure. Despite calls for the president and the coalition factions, it is not stated from the rostrum of the Verkhovna Rada of his resignation, although he was given the opportunity to leave nicely.
For politics it is important, on whose initiative the resignation is. And if this initiative is a politician who feels that something is done in his position, he saves himself for future political activities and can count on the future. If it is initiated by other forces, it may have a different effect. However, the expert believes, Yatsenyuk not be lost in any form would.
However, Ruslan Bortnik believes that resignation is like jumping out of an airplane without a parachute, because the political prospects of Arseniy Yatsenyuk with this rating are not brilliant.
Nevertheless, the prime minister has a chance to at least imitate the game in the formation of new government. Among other things, this will strengthen the party. For a while, he will be very soft and pliable, but not for long. With immunity until September, Arseniy Yatsenyuk may use the remaining months to benefit. He might gather support group in Parliament.
This means that the play played on 16 February is only an episode in the series. To be continued.