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Ukrainian export: all hope goes for agriculture

Author : Aleksandr Okhrimenko

18:01, 25 November 2015
Ukrainian export: all hope goes for agriculture

Author : Aleksandr Okhrimenko

In recent years Ukraine is actively increasing the sale of food, but rather, a grain to be sold abroad. In the context of decline in exports metal, especially of machinery, all hope goes for agriculture. It is expected if not to replace the export of transformers and export of carriages, but at least partially compensate for the loss of export earnings.

18:01, 25 November 2015

112 International

But, and the fact that this year grain prices have fallen by 21% must be remembered, so even having increased by 15% grain exports in physical measurement, export proceeds received by 9% less than last year. But the growth of grain exports continues, and Ukraine has great hopes for this segment of the economy.

However, before selling the grain, it must be grown first. As a result of the work of agriculture over 10 months of 2015, the crops have already got from 93.7% of planted land. There is a small part to be cropped. So far only wheat can be sold.  They collected 27 million tons of wheat, it is almost 10% more than last year. 11 million tons of sunflowers were collected, which is almost 11% more than last year. But only 18 million tons of corn was collected, which is 12% less than last year. There is a difference from year to year. Although, the corn is highly demanded on the world market. Ukraine at the end of 2014/2015 marketing year ranked second in the world export of corn after the United States. But it’s hard to compete with the US for us. For the US, corn is the key agricultural-product.  For us, this is more like oil for Russia. Heavy oil. Yields of maize in Ukraine are about 55 hundreds kilograms per hectare, and in the United States about 110 hundreds kilograms per hectare. If we have such technologies and capabilities, we could easily double the production and sale of corn. But without investment, and enormous investment, it will not happen. And without agricultural land market there will be not investment. Here's a paradox.

For the account of potatoes. During 10 months of 2015 we collected 20 million tons, which is 13% less than last year. But do not panic or think that is not enough. Ukraine can’t export potatoes. And we have enough of these tones with a large margin. To export potatoes it should be of the other shape and other sorts. It’s not that easy to export.

There will be no problems with vegetables; too, we have collected a lot. But sugar beet was collected by 38% less than last year. Therefore, experts are not lying when they say that the next year the price of sugar can grow. It's a fact. The less sugar - the higher the price. Already, the purchase price for sugar beet is more than a year ago by 43%. So it will not be cheap sugar. Like a miracle, the sugar will be cheaper if we buy cane sugar. But this is unlikely.

I fit’s clear enough with crop growing, the cattle breeding has a number of problems. Due to the fact that it has become difficult for Ukraine to sell dairy products in the CIS countries, the demand for milk has fallen. As a result, the number of cows over 10 months of 2015 decreased by 6%, and is likely to diminish further. The output of the situation is not good. Grain prices rose by 62%. These are feeding-stuffs. But the purchase price of milk has increased by only 20%. So it turns out that it is easier to kill a cow than to mess with the milk. This is a very bad trend. The milk production is dropping. But a significant drop happen that price will grow only and the cow population can’t be recovered promptly. The cow won’t over the day.

Neither the poultry is giving the joy. For the first time in seven years, poultry stock decreased, but grew before. As a result, the production of eggs fell by 18% and this despite the fact that the purchase price of eggs rose by 70%. The same thing is with poultry. Purchase prices of poultry meat increased by 36%, and meat production fell. Partly due to exports. Again, because there is a problem with the CIS market, especially Russian. Exports of poultry meat to Russia actually blocked, and as a result, the production for business is not that interesting. Now Ukrainian exporters of poultry began to sell more in the Arab countries, want to enter the Chinese market. There is some success. But sales of poultry meat in the EU, rather, are just a myth. Ukrainian exporters used only 18% quota for poultry meat supply of in the EU. This is the problem of marketing. Let’s not forget that the EU is a global manufacturer and exporter of poultry meat.

The number of pigs is also reduced, although more slowly than cows. And the purchase price of pork has also increased significantly in 2015. Here is the reason - the influence of demand. Retail pork prices rose, largely due to rising grain prices, which is an animal feed. Therefore, for many Ukrainians pork became expensive. And make no pork without feeding it; we haven’t learned yet, so far it’s only expensive. And if it costly there is no high demand. This is kind of agriculture we‘ve got this year. One always wants to be better. But the reality is somehow different than the desired.

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