Will Putin forgive Erdogan for downing SU-24?
Turkish president was the only leader who invented the antidote against Putin's hybrid war
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Many Western analysts have repeatedly stated that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is very similar to Russia’s Vladimir Putin, namely in the approach to politics and government. In fact, Turkish president is a kind of Russia’s alter ego. Both of them have chosen similar style of leadership, motivation; they are from poor families and came to power by demolishing their opponents.
Erdogan is “macho-president,” exactly like Putin. Russian SU-24 aircraft in Turkish airspace is not just a joke for Erdogan. Turkish president was the only leader who invented the antidote against Putin's hybrid war. Russian aircraft invaded the airspace around the Baltics, Scandinavia, Britain, etc. However, only Erdogan had the courage to prevent the Russians.
Putin’s main motive is proving his coolness. First of all, he is doing it for himself and for his fellow citizens. Russian officials are willing to do everything possible to please Putin and his keen sense of narcissism. Kremlin created a comic scandal with Erdogan’s letter, distorting the meaning of words of the Turkish President. Erdogan has not apologized for the downed plane, but only expressed regret over the incident. He did not appeal to the whole country, but to the family of the deceased pilot.
The Turkish leader realizes that the only country able to provide him support at a crucial moment is the United States, for the next five months "left to itself" and completely absorbed in the presidential campaign. No external stimuli did not induce Washington to help in the confrontation between Erdogan and Putin.
Turkish president understands that he is dealing with highly unpredictable and dangerous opponent. He knows that he cannot totally rely on America, so he tries to gain time and waits for the new administration to come. Therefore, he uses such non-trivial methods, like a letter to Kremlin.
Erdogan is a very intelligent president. He knows that Putin is a man who does not forget the offences and does not believe in excuses. Russian President has conceived anger at Erdogan, and nothing could be done. Putin would never forgive Turkey the downed plane. Erdogan realizes that the flow of Russian tourists to Turkey would not resume, so he is trying to buy time.
He will try at least to withdraw Turkey from the state of military confrontation with Russia. The first time since the cooling of Turkish-Russian relations, the Turkish foreign minister would fly to Russia. The Turks, of course, will try to balance and stabilize relations with the Russians. At least get out of the paradigm of enemies. However, they do not count on the rapid warming of relations and restoration of the status quo.
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