Where are $ 13 billion of Ukrainian export?
Ukraine has signed the Association Agreement with the EU, but it’s main buyers are China and India
Why there is such a difference? Statistic service counts the movement of goods and services abroad and from abroad, and the NBU counts currency inflow and outflow of foreign economic contracts. So, different kind of schemes shows it very well that the currency just does not come to Ukraine. But everyone pretends not to notice this.
But if there was only problem of currency outflow alone, it could be solved. There is another essential problem, with far more harmful outcomes. According to the Customs service data, in the period from January to August of 2015, Ukrainian export constituted only $ 24.8 billion. It is too little. In fact, it is $ 13 billion (or for 34%) lesser than the same index for 2014. Ukrainian export declines. It means outflow of GDP, currency gain, and thus the currency deficit is assured. Contrariwise, we need to increase the export for these billions. This might really provide the GDP growth and solve the problems of the country’s currency market.
According to the Customs service data, during the eight months of 2015 Ukraine mostly has sold on export corn (8.7% of total Ukrainian export), sunflower oil (7.8% of export), and semifinished steel products (with index of 6.9%).
For the eight months of 2015, export to Russia declined for 58%, or $ 4.3 billion. There is purposeful Russian policy to close its markets for the Ukrainian goods. Russia in fact wages a trade war against Ukraine, and tends to reduce our export.
In order to defend from Russian “trade aggression”, Ukraine reoriented to other markets, and that are markets of Asia, not Europe. So, the most corn we trade to China, Egypt is the second, and Spain is only the third. What about sunflower oil, the main purchasers are India, China, and Iran. Semifinished steel products mostly came to Egypt, Turkey, and Italy.
Asian countries now provide the most sales for Ukrainian export. For us, it is important to improve relations especially with those countries. Namely Asian economies allow Ukraine at least to partially compensate the loss of the Russian market.
Strange situation: Ukraine has signed the Association Agreement with the EU, but sells the most products to China and India. A paradox, I would say.
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