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Under such an approach, Ukraine's economy to wither in some 3-6 months

Author : Olexandr Honcharov

10:05, 21 March 2016
Under such an approach, Ukraine's economy to wither in some 3-6 months

Author : Olexandr Honcharov

The political and economic crisis in Ukraine will continue to grow: it is unavoidable

10:05, 21 March 2016

expert.ru

Ukrainian economy of Arseniy Yatseniuk somehow survives thanks to the enthusiasm of those entrepreneurs who broke the backbone of the Cabinet of Mykola Azarov. But the enthusiasm cannot be maintained indefinitely. The 16th US President Abraham Lincoln pointed out that you can fool some person all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.

Therefore, it is now easy to understand those people who believe that those past days were the best. Or is it due to the fact that today they have a very difficult life, do not get all what they dreamed and what genuinely like? Their hopes did not come true. What's the matter? The government gas no answers to these questions. Moreover, our politicians do not understand the cause-and-effect relationship problems in society and in the economy. They have no enough knowledge, lack the skills, therefore it is impossible to deal with these problems effectively and efficiently.

This seems to be true, in the last year the number those who wanted to go to Western countries to do business has increased dramatically among my colleagues and acquaintances. Indeed, it increased dramatically. And today, a good friend of mine, a successful businessman, leaves Ukraine. I think this means that we are losing experienced entrepreneurs. Competitive experts are actively looking for certainty and stability. But, in my opinion, the government does not feel it. Also, officials do not realize that the modernization class, which must reform our economy, should firmly know in what kind of society it lives.

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That is why today people think: "Oh Lord, let them finally form the new Cabinet and let them begin running the country's economy". However, the pessimists and skeptics are preparing for the worst. What if the hope of restoring the country's economy does not come true? But the recession has become the longest one since 2000, plus the unemployment rate is at a record high level. Most of our citizens live in conditions of a deficiency of money, and a wide array of products and goods is perceived as an insult.

And it is a serious blow to their health. Even the officers are sounding the alarm. According to them, too large percentage of young men almost with signs of deterioration is mobilized. This is the result of under-consumption of protein and calories. Finally, with the cost of living, pensions and scholarships, as we have, a considerable part of the population is deprived of the things that belong to the category of daily necessities.

Related: Ukraine topped by Economic Growth Index in 4th quarter of 2015

The people are only watching all these illiterate political representatives. When I hear the speeches of some of our ministers, it seems that they generally do not understand the motivation of Ukrainians to follow new economic models, new ways of survival in conditions of the crisis in Ukraine. Foreign ministers do understand our mentality, they know how to create incentives for Ukrainian business.

All these questions are paramount, but the ministers have no answers. Therefore, in my natural question, "What can we expect?" high officials often just grin in response. They just have nothing to say. But I warn them that loyalty of Ukrainian society can survive only for a short time - until the fall of 2016. By October-November, resource patience in people would be exhausted, protest moods are quickly growing because of the difficult economic situation in the country.

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Is there any solving of this situation? The political and economic crisis in Ukraine will continue to grow. It is unavoidable. Civil society has not yet been formed, and the national elite, which grew out of the Soviet era, still cannot respond to the opinion of Ukrainian citizens. The elites do not depend on the electorate, as it was in Soviet times. I admit that today neither Yatsenyuk, nor the whole government together with the Verkhovna Rada did not realize that under this trigger, the results of this crisis could be even more devastating.

Yes, all these triggers are built into the mood of protests. The clock is ticking. If you do not accept radical changes, the markets and the entire economy will begin to fall in three to six months. The question is when it will happen? Recently I have learned that MP Leonid Kozachenko, whom I consider to be the most competent in the field of agriculture, resigned as a freelance adviser to the Prime Minister (by the way, Yatsenyuk had 3 staff and 16 freelance advisors). Moreover, among the reasons for this decision Kozachenko named the lowest of the Cabinet rating in the history of Ukraine, the lack of real reform and the inability to discuss topical issues and their solutions with Arseniy Yatsenyuk.

In fact, the Prime Minister has so many advisers! But, unfortunately, even today advisers to Prime Minister do not get backlash from the public administration. And it is not just a matter, it is a very big trouble.

Related: In 2015, Ukraine cut food import rate by 41.5 percent

Finally, as you know, on Tuesday, March 15, Yuriy Lutsenko in parliament congratulated us with the third year of the rabbit. Thank you. Now the right to ask questions is transferred to us, the voters. They say, we should know who is responsible for the failure to comply with the prime minister's promises? Who should be involved in the Cabinet responsible for misallocation and waste of our budget money? Personally, I think that people's deputies, and voters should ask the government why all those their promises were not fulfilled, although they could be implemented.

What was it - blatant blunders or theft? The Cabinet cries that it is necessary to clamp the costs, fight against inflation, and all at the same time increase the regulated prices and tariffs. That is why this is similar to the effect of a wounded mind. The economic arguments co not persuade Yatsenyuk, the deputies or experts, moreover, the Cabinet does not even tend to analyze these economic reasons. It is also true that Yatsenyuk would not leave voluntarily from the post of Prime Minister. Therefore, I expect a serious disturbance to take place. I dare to predict: current events in Kyiv by the Verkhovna Rada are beginning of a large-scale serious process. The cock has pecked. 

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