Ukrainian political bargaining: dismiss Government, remove Prime Minister
Yatsenyuk looked so unconvincing that his resignation seemed inevitable, but he just knew the outcome of the vote in advance
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Despite the unprecedented criticism of the government, Arseniy Yatsenyuk managed to stay in the chair and the president Petro Poroshenko has played a real spectacle, turning crucial vote in parliament into the subject of political bargaining.
The intrigue over the government's fate began to dissolve in the afternoon. A growing number of factions declared their readiness to vote for Yatseniuk's resignation. After the head of the faction Bloc of Petro Poroshenko Yuriy Lutsenko submitted the draft resolution with the necessary 150 signatures, there was no hope for salvation is not left even among the most ardent supporters of the government.
At the same time the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko issued a statement, urging the government and the Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin to resign. This circumstance has given every reason to believe that Bankova Street has the political will to change the Cabinet.
In the end, after the report of the Government, Verkhovna Rada adopted two contradictory solutions. First, the Parliament adopted a resolution in acknowledging the report of the Cabinet as unsatisfactory, that is a legal reason for making a vote of no confidence resolution.
And then suddenly on the scoreboard display the figure of 194 votes "for" appeared, what means that Yatsenyuk remains Prime Minister of Ukraine at least until September. Recall, according to the Regulations of the Verkhovna Rada of no confidence to the Government in the event of the failure of a vote cannot be re-imposed until the end of the current session.
Drama of the plenary session began to grow to the point where the government report was deferred from 12.00 to 16.00, which moved the consideration of the agenda in favor of visa-free package of laws, and the controversial bill №3700, better known as the "law of the party slavery".
In fact, it was a kind of warm-up, confirming the long-agreed scenario. The bill №4055, which allows the Prosecutor General of Ukraine to block the appointment of the anti-corruption prosecutor, was adopted in the first reading, but the draft law №4056, which will improve the work of the National Agency of Ukraine on the investigation and management of corruption assets, was failed by deputies.
According to our sources, the failure of a vote under this law served as one of the reasons for Poroshenko’sstatement about the resignation of Yatsenyuk. Bankova had to understand that agreed issues will be successfully held, and it was a condition of inviolability of the current composition of the Cabinet. For the "visa-free package" - it is a question of international guarantees of Western partners, which were given by President Poroshenko.
Arseniy Yatsenyuk looked confident. The audience did not hear absolutely nothing new - the prime minister's rhetoric very often consisted of long-familiar speed, stamps and examples. Yatsenyuk has traditionally referred to the difficult time that the country has taken, not forgetting to mention the empty treasury, from which he was unable to pay salaries and pensions.
Yatsenyuk talked security, stressing that the military budget this year was unprecedented 113 billion hryvnia. However, Prime Minister ignored this aspect as the development of the money from the Ministry of Defense.
Himself a plus Yatsenyuk put undertaken deregulation, increasing the incomes of local budgets by an average of 42% and a rapprochement with NATO. In this case, the presentations fractions arguments premier parried reminder of devaluation, distorts the official statistics.
Speaking about his achievements, Yatsenyuk once again talked about the plans for customs reform. He remembered about the promise that Ukraine is not buying Russian gas, issuing a reverse for getting rid of the "gas needle".
In fact, at the time of the report Yatsenyuk looked so unconvincing that his resignation seemed inevitable. But, obviously, the Prime Minister just knew the outcome of the vote in advance.
Statement of Poroshenko on Yatseniuk's resignation contained an important option, the resignation of the prosecutor general Viktor Shokin, one of the main figures in the president's entourage. In the midst of the media rushed to report the government's report that Shokin supposedly in the afternoon wrote a letter of resignation, but soon the Prosecutor General denied this information.
The department reported that Shokin is on vacation, and his duties are now performed by Yuri Sevruk. Therefore, after the return to work Shokin is unlike to write a statement given yesterday's events in parliament. Also, do not forget that the public prosecutor resignation is voted by the parliament, which. Taking into concideration Ukrainian realities, there might be not enough votes.
However, it was the resignation of Victor Shokin known as one of the main requirements of the U.S. administration in the last meeting of Poroshenko and Biden in Davos. Therefore, resignation of Shokin against the backdrop of the crisis of the government can help Petro Poroshenko "kill two birds with one stone" by playing the card Attorney General both on the inside and on the outside political arena.
The political spectacle played by BPP and "People's Front", raised on the surface several aspects of the system.
First - no one in the first echelon of Ukrainian politics does not want early elections. Including groups of Rinat Akhmetov and Ihor Kolomoisky - if you look at the vote of oppositionsl parties. Various centers of power has made agreements on the eve of the forthcoming privatization and customs reform.
The second - the neo-liberal policies of the government with all its antisocial overtones cannot be stop in the medium term. This means that 2016 will be even more "shocking" for the Ukrainian economy.
The third - the power ceased to feel the growth of social tension, which is able to lead to new protests. Especially such situation is dangerous on the eve of the second anniversary of the Maidan, which is superimposed on the political crisis.
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