Ukraine is between "Titanic" and "Britannic"
Ukraine is squeezed between Russian sinking "Titanic" and European "Britannic", which is leading without a certain direction
Read the original text at Unian.
Nobody has doubts that we live in times of great changes. Most of people cannot even know exactly how these changes would influence the usual world.
A lot of people compare Putin's Russia with the rapidly sinking "Titanic", and the days of this “Titanic” are numbered. International experts and Russian ones admit it. Rating of President Putin finally fell below 50%. After series of Western knockouts, Russia will never be the same. Never.
We should not forget about the report on downed Malaysian "Boeing" and other things. For example, the resumption of investigations of crimes during the Russian war with Georgia, or a new investigation over Smolensk tragedy and the death of Polish President Lech Kaczynski, along with many other senior government officials of Poland.
Recently, Russian authorities announced plans to save the banks and the state budget at the expense of deposits of the population. This is the final diagnosis of the Putin regime. The only candidate for further looting, remains the property of the population, which will soon be taken away from bank deposits and will drive into the rigid framework favorable regime behavior. That is, the "Titanic", which is leading to the bottom, to its natural end.
Ukraine, like many neighboring states, is expected to feel the suicidal drowning of the northern empire. Millions of immigrants from Russia, and the increased security risks (especially on the eastern and northern Ukrainian border), and uncertainty about the following rulers of Russia. On the other hand, we have no reason to save the Russian "Titanic". Therefore, it is better to prepare for a new geopolitical collapse of Putin’s revived version of the Soviet Union. The main thing is not to allow the Politburo to mimic in future rulers of Russia.
For some reason, few people pay attention to another "Titanic" on the western borders of Ukraine, more precisely, the "Britannic", - the ship of the same class, designed and built in the same shipyard, which has also sunk as a result of a landmine explosion. European "Britannic" is much more promising than its Russian counterpart, but more than one minefield are already located on its way.
The European Union (actually, "Britannic") has no coherent foreign policy strategy. Neither in relations with the East, nor in the relations with the South.
The striking example is the recent revelations of the head of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs Witold Waszczykowski, who voiced the failure of "Eastern Partnership” policy. The reason of the failure is lack of prospects of EU membership for the countries of the "partnership". Ukrainian "revolution of dignity" has fully corroborated this fact. Ukrainians died under the bullets of the European values, while many EU capitals were shamefully silent, counting the damage of worsening of relations with Putin.
Now the situation has changed, but not everywhere and not in a radical way. Germany, France, Italy and some other countries continue to firmly declare the urgent need to resume cooperation with the Kremlin and lifting of sanctions. Europe does not understand the horror of Putin's hybrid wars, which are, actually, targeted against the EU. France does not compare the attacks in Paris and direct financial Russia’s support of radicals from the party "National Front", leaded by Marine Le Pen. Moreover, President Hollande - the only one of the European leaders – is in a hurry to carry out with Putin a joint military campaign against the Islamic state in Syria. Russia is fighting against the Syrian opposition, instead of ISIS, and it enflames great expansion of the area of the Middle East wars.
According to many experts, Europe is to face the biggest challenges of the last few decades (probably the last time something like this was during NATO's war against Milosevic in the late 90s of the last century).
Risk №1 - Russia. Western Europe does not clearly understand the whole situation with the enemy country, while countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltics have adequate perception of the problem. As a result, Eastern Europe is host a limited contingent of the U.S. troops. No one knows whether Putin will try to play the card of the hybrid war in Latvia, for example.
Risk №2 - migrants from the Middle East and Africa. It is a mistake to think that a resolution of the situation in Syria (and the situation is very far from the end of the conflict), the flow of migrants to the EU will stop. It would not stop. The main reason is not in Syria, and the demographic explosion in Africa and the Middle East, where the number of children per family is 5-7, and the nearest place for safe and comfortable immigration is Europe. German professor Gunnar Heinsohn has set a demographic example, he showed that the "youth bubble" of the population from 15 to 24 years amounted to 20% in Africa and the Middle East, and this “bubble” is ready to "explode". Most of the African and Middle Eastern youth will come to Europe, demanding their part of the social benefits. Tens of millions of young Muslims.
Thus, the security risk, together with the migration risk, aggravates the economic situation of the EU countries. Europe looks like "Britannic" without effective system of security in the EU and around it, as well as a clear foreign policy strategy of the European Union. Not surprisingly, London, in this situation, is actively maneuvering, leaving an opportunity for the UK to exit the EU.
Ukraine, in this case, must realistically assess the situation in Russia and the EU. It must search for the partners within and around Europe, such as Poland, Lithuania, Romania, Turkey, which would be willing to cooperate, to overcome the challenges. Ukraine must rely on long-term relationships with the U.S., particularly in the defense sector, as well integration into NATO.
Without inner transformation in all spheres of life, the chances of passing the global turbulence in the next decade would be low. If Ukraine is not interested, then the whole world will safely take our disappearance easy.
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