The latest figures of public opinion demonstrate that Donald Trump leads his Republican contenders in the states, where the primaries are to start. So, the Marist Poll results, published on September 61, the businessman is the most popular Republican in both Iowa and New Hampshire with indexes of 29% and 28% respectively. For comparison, support of Florida governor Jeb Bush is near 6% in both states, while he had 12% in July.
As the poll analysts have pointed, Trump “runs best among Tea Party identifiers, independents, voters without a college education, and men.” Taking this into consideration, the candidate’s main base is the far-conservatives and radical Republicans, who are disappointed in mainstream policy of this party. On the other hand, his growth opportunities seem to be exhausted. However, in situation of absence of definite single candidate of the moderate Republicans, Trump’s role in this campaign is still promising and perspective. Also, if he goes as an independent, as it has been already assumed by him, it will lead to a serious vote loss for the “elephants”.
When discussing the “Trump phenomenon” of 2016 presidential race, some notes are needed concerning relation between his position and provocative statements, accused of being sexist, racist, or in any other way offensive, and the set of ideas, traditionally defended by the Republicans. On the one hand, Donald Trump implicitly supports abortion rights, does not seem to be too much religious, his personal life does not present him as very faithful to the traditional family values. He is criticized for “a conflict of worldviews” between him and traditional conservative position. So, in Iowa Trump commented the issue of his faith, “When I drink my little wine and have my little cracker, I guess that is a form of asking for forgiveness.” However, the observers, and Republican among them, refer to Trump’s tension to imitate Ronald Reagan’s manner in strict, tough speaking, provocative actions, and combination of certain going beyond in personal life with deep fidelity to social Conservatism.
Of the latest scandals to break around the candidate, Trump stated about one of his Republican rivals, Carly Fiorina, “Look at that face! Would anyone vote for that? Can you imagine that, the face of our next president?!” These words have immediately caused the negative reaction among Trump’s critics. During the last Republican debates he was blamed for calling women “fat pigs” and “disgusting animals” (what he had rejected), and now there is another cause for speaking of his sexist views. But objectively, this Trump’s trick does not seem to impact significantly to a level of his support. Ms. Fiorina answered to his words, “Maybe, just maybe, I'm getting under his skin a little bit because I am climbing in the polls.”
Mr. Trump is obviously aware of his image as a brutal brawler, and scarcely will get calmer in future. Furthermore, next week the next round of Republican debate is to take place, so he will undoubtedly become a newsmaker again. However his main “trump card” is issues of illegal migration and border security, the businessman is also known for his tough statements concerning Ukraine. While the Ukrainian question is discussed from time to time by the other candidates, Trump is also likely to use it - but in his own, non-mainstream for the Republicans way.