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The situation around Turkey and in Turkey continues to worsen. If you try to predict the course of events, they develop in a negative direction (at least for us, for the US, and the EU).
Analysis of statements of Turkish leaders indicates that we can expect that some bad news might come from Ankara. I think those mechanisms, which could help Turkey become a European country, and which have been operating during the last decades, are broken.
The current situation reminds me a scenario, which is launched to stop this movement. This is a very dangerous scenario. It is not only about migration, which can lead to another wave of problems in Europe, but also about some aspects related to NATO.
NATO issue is much more than complex and problematic. Turkey is not the EU member (and would not join it in the nearest future). Speaking about solidarity within the alliance, the recent statements and events, including the situation with the US military base in Turkey, show the threat of a serious weakening of NATO’s southern flank.
In this regard, we should look closely at the events taking place in the region, especially given the fact that Russia continues to transform Crimea into a powerful naval base. The theoretical transition of Turkish position might seriously weaken NATO’s southern flank and radically change the situation.
So while the events taking place in Turkey give no reason for optimism. We must also analyze the sudden thaw in relations with Moscow, which never happens without an important reason. I suppose that some secret consultations were held during which the Turkish authorities were offered some bonuses to pull Turkey away from the general line of NATO and the EU.
These trends are very dangerous, especially for us. Because the Ukrainian diplomacy and diplomacy of NATO and the EU should develop some methods to neutralize the current negative trend and return the situation to the normal way.