Driven to a standstill Minsk process strategists did not invented anything better than to arrange the grand maneuvers. And, actually, what else they should do to justify their existence and simulate at least some frantic activity?
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Silence regime they have repeatedly arranged – and they didn’t like it. Now you can move along the demarcation line, and also move the mines, dig new entrenchments, at list soldiers will be at work this time. Of course, we shouldn’t finally recognize this whole adventure has really no sense?
Neither the president nor his companions that are incessantly and persistently giving their plump and peaceful helping hand can publicly confirm their own unprofessionalism. Instead of weapons, for example. While they have not invented a new format, new interesting military process, let leave what there already is. And all would do if we really had reasons for these initiatives. The real truce, mutual weariness of war and mutual desire to finally stop it, more or less understandable position of opponents and their partners, the lack of double or even triple bottom, frank clarification of all mentioned circumstances. We see none of this. Except perhaps fatigue, did not backed by mutual good will to end the war.
Of course, arguments like "no surrender of Ukrainian territory," "this refers only to the first real steps to cease confrontation", "simultaneous disengagements of the parties - is not everything, but the beginning of settlement", "the kilometer, by which position moves means nothing from a tactical point of view, under the present circumstances of warfare – it is even more convenient , Ukrainians still have opportunities to attack the enemy, but there is a zone controlled by observers who watch the hostilities and could create free from war, peaceful points" – these arguments are full of impressive depth and strategic insight. Especially when you consider that within a few kilometers of these points, as if on purpose, militants firing from mortars of 120 caliber, near Shyrokine at the evening we have 2 killed and 11 wounded soldiers and also humanitarian convoy from Russia is tirelessly pulling out cisterns with fuel, tanks and other military gifts. So hard to believe that on the other side people are infinitely interested in ending violence in Donbas and disengagement of forces isn’t another farce.
Europe is tired. Prim old lady, mired in its luxury and senile marasmus, has done too many to put an end to this Ukrainian hysteria. Having become hostage to her own principles of civilization, geopolitical intrigues and other circumstances, she reluctantly took part in all this confusion of sanctions, visa-free regime, adventurous epic of the Minsk negotiations and "Normandy format" and now doesn’t know how to get out of this. All those demarches, friendly removal of the Russian delegation from the PACE, permanent extension of sanctions ... But Europe knows that Russia needs French cheese and Italian slippers and also European money, so why these two lovely partners should simulate hostility after some unfortunate misunderstanding in the East?
America is not tired. This country has no time to worry about Avdiivka or Shyrokine because it has Trump. He is more important than seized piece of Donbas. If there will be no Trump – Donbas will return, and if Trump will be – then Donbas might move to Washington and indeed the whole world can become Donbas.
Russia also is not tired. It has a concrete plan and methodically implementing it. Of course, the Kremlin's interest in all these maneuvers is not peace and end of the war. Fighting in such a way as now, Russia can for a long time. But it is interesting to arrange a trap for Ukrainians improvising a kind of peace in Donbas, put them into this “peace” and observe how internal tensions would strengthen and conflicts that naturally arise in the process of integration, will destroy their country.
What think the representatives of the Ukrainian government on this situation, is not very clear. And on the direction of these ideas there are currently many questions and misunderstandings. If the official Kyiv really believes in resolving the situation in Donbas through gradual ceasefire and withdrawal of troops, and later signing another Minsk agreement, then it's even worse than no ideas at all. Nevertheless, all of the above mentioned assumption unlikely to have a chance to be implemented in pure form. Yes, it again might hit the remains of the Kremlin's image in the West, may strengthen the position of Ukrainian diplomacy, it is possible to even add a plus to the karma of Ukrainian president. But it would not solve the issue of returning Donbas to Ukraine.
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