Resolution of French Senate: lifting sanctions or elections in Donbas?
Demarche of the French parliament will be the basis to strengthen international pressure against Ukraine
Read the original text at Eurointegration.com.ua.
Some diplomats believe that French state and diplomacy has degraded after Napoleon.
The resolution of the French parliament is also disappointing: the politicians want to cancel sanctions against Russia. The distribution of votes is shocking: 302 to 16.
I would venture to predict that this resolution will be ignored by the current French government, and sanctions against Russia for the next six months will be prolonged (although variations are possible). But this does not make the situation better for Ukraine.
I would venture to make another prediction: today demarche of the French parliament will be the basis to strengthen international pressure against Ukraine. It forces us to fulfill the Minsk agreement: to change the Constitution, to adopt laws, and to hold elections in the temporarily occupied territories.
We will be said that the price of these sanctions is too high. In addition, Ukraine cannot demonstrate comforting news about sustainable development, economic growth, or fight against corruption.
Here emerges a trap of lack of alternatives to the Minsk agreements and international coalition in support of Ukraine.
The other countries might follow the example of France. They might say that if we want their support, we must hold elections in the occupied territories of Donbas. In addition, we must think seriously about the prospects of "Norman format," about further participation of France (as a weak link). So what should be done?
First of all, we must realize that the current form of sanctions against Russia will not be long.
Therefore, sacrifice anything for their continuation is just a diplomatic stupidity. The sanctions were a sovereign decision of the respective countries, which introduced them voluntarily, and not because of any commitment or arrangement with Ukraine.
It is time to find new instrument of deterrence and actively discuss different options.
Also, we must make it clear to our friends and partners, we do not feel a rush to return Donbas on the condition Minsk agreements or without Crimea.
We have two options:
1) to prolong the sanctions against Russia for another six months without clear guarantees (elections in Donbas are not excluded),
2) to remain an independent unitary state with losing some territories for a long time,
We definitely choose the latter option.
Someone might say that Russia might start a large-scale war after getting rid of sanctions. In this case, Ukraine will not have a chance to prevent an escalation of such a war into the world war.
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