Read the original text at krymr.com.
No tents on Red Square with tea and sandwiches. No stage near the Central Department Store, Alexei Navalny and Vasya Oblomov would not speak in public. Historical Museum would not host the kitchen, Automaidan would not appear on the Boulevard Ring and negotiations with the authorities about the rules for early elections. Forget it.
Because any protests - is a story about a rate hike. Street demonstrations are like poker: the one who says the first pass, leaves the scene. Three years ago, it happened in Kyiv: force against force. Beat students - hundreds of thousands came out. Adopt a law against protesters - first firebombs flew on Grushevskogo Street. Shoot activists - Yanukovych leaves the country. At any stage of the Maidan could retreat - and lose. Yanukovych at any stage could fill the country with blood - and for some time to win.
I think that the Kremlin learned the lesson from situation. That is why I do not believe in the prospect of Maidan in Russia. Protesters in Bolotnaya Square would not repeat, "angry citizens" would not come. Unfortunately.
Unfortunately, in the first place, for Russia itself. Because Maidan is a story about the change of elites. When one comes to replace the other, but the state is saved, the process continues, and only the internal architecture of the relationships change. Independence - is pushed to extremum request evolution, the only alternative that can be a total demolition of the system.
And this is precisely the main risk for Russia.
Because the modern Russian Federation - is a state-built, not least, a consensus of elites. Not only the capital, but, in particular, regional and central elites. They are the only subjects of decision-making in the Russian Federation - any revision of the powers of rent payments, the regional exemptions and earnings due to the weakening or strengthening of a group of influence.
In the nineties, when the Russian state budget looked like a sieve, and the prize for oil was low, Rotary was the main content of domestic policy. Kremlin persuaded head of Tatarstan Mintimer Sharipovich Shaimiev to delete from the Constitution of the word "sovereign". Instead, the region has received considerable piece of authority and the budget pie.
Actually, all of the nineties were just half-an epoch - it stopped only with the stage of expensive oil. At that time, the Kremlin has got the opportunity with the help of petrodollars poured centrifugal sentiment - money helped, if not to solve problems, to stop them. And, by coincidence, a stage of high oil prices has coincided with the coming to power of Vladimir Putin.
The fact that the 2000th the era of the centrifugal time stopped, was not a direct merit - if oil continued to cost $ 20, in 2010 we would see a very different Russia. But oil prices, which have grown in the past decade, fell again two years ago. And because of the annexation of Crimea, Russia lost access to Western credits, to which it existed in the “nineties.” Because of sanctions.
Therefore, Russia in second half of 2010 is similar to itself ten years ago - but in the rollback. First - the budget deficit, spending cuts, thinning financial egg capsules. Then - attempts to restructure debt state monopolies and state corporations threat of default. In the governors will hang up more responsibilities, requiring them to independence. At the same time, those who will take on this very independence will dismiss out of fear of losing control.
To keep on the same level bloated social payments will be increasingly difficult – Russian would have to choose between reducing costs and the inclusion of the printing press. Non-core expenses will be cut - the longest on unabated dependents remain state employees as a key electoral base of power. Army program will also be inviolable - devastating Russian "bins."
Following comes the conflict between the major financial and industrial groups: competition for access to the budget will condemn them to the competition. Between the regions of donor and subsidized regions will increase tension. Sooner or later, some of the peripheries of the filing of the local elites will start to sound the thesis "Stop feeding Moscow."
Countries collapsed not only because of the intrusion or revolutions. The collapse may well be the result of intra-elite conspiracy. People can stop it - if it is active and passionarity. Or stand idly - if any grassroots activity it is suppressed at the level of instincts. It is for this reason that in the 91th year of the collapse of the Soviet Union looked hateful armchair game - outside of big cities streets teemed with queues, but not the rallies.
Kremlin with its own hands deprive the Russian people of the right to subjectivity. Taking his election, freezing the political system, announcing any unauthorized activity civil authorities - a crime. People simply weaned unite for the sake of protection of what they believe, instilling them that "those at the top - it is better to know." The Kremlin was all this fear of the "Maidan", which may require changes. But the threat to the state is based not only on the streets - it is quite capable of carrying and elite. And immersed in suspended animation population will be unable to express their point of view, because it weaned this same point of view to have.
Two and a half years ago, Russia had the opportunity to travel in time - in the past. From 2013th - as the point of maximum wellbeing - back to "tenths" and nineties. The desire to build a regional elite individual States in the territory of the Federation.
And Russia is not a major threat that the country will happen Maidan. Its main problem is that Maidan will not occur.