Is new world order possible without a big war?
The world should make a choice: restore the old order brick by brick or plunge into the unknown
Read the original text at rosbalt.ru.
January 6, the US Congress approved the results of the electoral vote, which took place on December 19 last year. This event is the final sum up of the preliminary results of the world politics changes. Ivan Preobrazhensky comments on the current situation, calling it "disastrous new world or the old stability."
Western democracies have rebelled against their elites, while the authoritarian regimes have strengthened in the East. The main event of 2016 could be called Brexit. After several years the European elite could not find courage to oust the bankrupt Greece (at least from the common currency union), if not from the EU in general, the British "fathers" from the province suddenly have "beaten" multinational London and voted for the output from the European Union. At the same time, British elite remained in power. However, they must now perform the "will of the people."
Equally loud riot occurred in the United States, where a Republican Donald Trump surprisingly became the president. His team was not ready to win, and there as a lot of evidence of it. In the evening on election day "staff officers" received wages and were let home. However, the "one-storey America," being tired of the dictates of tolerance, decided otherwise; and under applicable law, elected extravagant billionaire as a president.
Trump will head the United States on January 20th, but his election has seriously altered the balance of power in world politics. And at the same time, by and large, no one, even the newly elected president of the United States, does not know what should be expected of him. It is known, for example, that Trump seems to have a certain sympathy for the Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. But this does not mean that Trump would cancel the anti-Russian sanctions, both those imposed earlier, and those which Barack Obama announced right before the New Year. Moreover, there is no reason to assume that the new president will start his activities with the rationalization of Russia’s invasion of Crimea.
The same applies to the US relationship with Israel. Shortly before leaving the post of the President, Barack Obama "pushed" through the UN Security Council resolution that restricts the construction of new settlements in the disputed territories of Palestine, which the Jewish state government called "anti-Semitic." Trump calls on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to hurry with a hard response and wait for the United States changes the leader. However, the new American president cannot abolish or reconsider the UN Security Council resolution, whatever Trump promised the Israeli Prime Minister. Similarly, the new president cannot immediately cancel many of the decrees of his predecessor, Barack Obama. In particular, a ban on the production of hydrocarbons in the Arctic. So the expectations of Trump’s supporters and opponents seem to be overestimated. But this will become clear only in the coming year. Meanwhile, in 2016, the new US president is definitely "the man of the year."
Of course, along with Vladimir Putin. Last year, Russia was one of the most topical and influential (at least in words) country in the world. Western leaders have realized that solving Syrian crisis without the participation of Vladimir Putin, is impossible.
The year began with the conflict with Turkey, caused by the fact that its air force shot down a Russian plane. It seemed that the state was on the verge of war. And then there was a strange attempt of a coup in Turkey, which led to the transformation of the authoritarian regime of Recep Erdogan into open dictatorship, and Moscow surprisingly became the closest partner of Ankara. As a result, together with Iran, these countries try to divide Syria into zones of influence, ignoring even the United States.
However, Democratic Party led by President Obama have strengthened the stereotype according to which the Kremlin could intervene in the internal affairs of any country in the world and therefore influence its own interests. After months of public debate, whether hacker attacks (presumably Russian ones) influenced the will of the Americans, two days before the New Year, outgoing president has introduced new sanctions against Russia, and sent 35 diplomats at once. What finally convinced the international community that Russia turned out to be in a position to influence the presidential election results of the single superpower.
The world is infected with a virus of general mistrust. Voters do not trust the national ruling elites, and a vivid example of this is not even a victory of Trump and presidential elections in Austria, where, because of differences in the counting of votes, the second round was carried out.
At the same time after the election of Trump, European allies did not trust the United States. China is on the verge of a military conflict with several of its neighbors, including Japan, and has shown a willingness to "take Russia under its wing." And Russia itself, after Lukashenko's refusal to attend the summit of the Eurasian Economic Union, has lost the confidence of even its only ally - Belarus.
Now there are two ways: go back, brick by brick restoring the shattered confidence, or go forward and create a new system of international relations. However, history shows that the indigenous redivision of the world order is often paralleled with a big war.