Hot political autumn
The start of a new political race seems to be productive. The cheerfulness of our politicians after holidays and accident on the Inter TV channel inspire a lot of optimism
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The rest of autumn and the time up to Christmas will be very how hot, even if our forecasters predict early and cold winter. So heating ourselves up at the TV, in social networks, or even on the streets probably would be much better than sitting near the radiator. And, of course, much cheaper.
The fresh parliamentary president's speech that took away an hour of precious working time of the deputies, was a vivid confirmation of this. There are no new trends planning to be implemented. After all, the speech (our respect to speechwriters) it’s just a well-written text that is not necessary to be embodied in life. While the realities dictate their terms and policies ignoring which is dangerous to health. Political health, of course.
Take at least a war that still appears to the country's leadership an ordinary counterterrorist operation. And the Minsk format, despite its proven and recognized even by the aggressor inefficiency will remain a guide to finding ways of reconciliation. Claiming that it is absurd is a waste of time. Fighting for the liberation of Ukrainian territory in the corridors of power is clearly an action without effect. And holding negotiations in Minsk is really more interesting and safer. However, president also is not going to lobby the holding of elections in the occupied Donbas. And we thank him on this. And Ukrainian MPs as well do not want to see a consideration of unpopular decisions in the parliament.
Where we really can expect the outbreak, is on the domestic populist field. A significant increase in tariffs on the background of a sharp drop in the purchasing power of people, their poverty and unemployment opens unprecedented prospects for lovers of this political genre. Those wishing to shake the boat will be found a lot, and most likely, the Kremlin plans in this area are already working well. On the first day of a new political season many protesters gathered near the walls of Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada, from miners to defrauded investors, although most of them were rather similar to the "professional" rally participants. For a long time we have not seen the real protests there and this fact also make our MPs so calm.
On whether the government will be able to convince the IMF to give several billion to us depends many things in our life, but, fortunately, not the all. The ball is still present on the Ukrainian side of the field, and it all depends on how to play the main scorer Lutsenko, how the reforms will be continued, whether reformers will be allowed to prove their performance. After all the lack of results, the inability and unwillingness to work, and most importantly, Ukrainian bureaucrats’ attempts to beat all by their actions are not original and were the main reasons for cooling our western friends.
The decentralisation, or rather its continuation and bringing it to a happy end, tax reform, ending of judicial reform, reform of the health sector and finally the introduction of health insurance, conducting of educational revolution, making new productive budget, reformatting the banking sector, which from a washing machine for illegal money could become finally the motor of business development, formatting of the new CEC, changing the electoral law, and, of course, making major step in the fight against corruption - these are (though not all) the issues that soon must be solved.
Obviously, there are many other points that we have to pay attention to. Verkhovna Rada is literally swamped with bills that desperately need consideration. And what should we expect from our MPs? Attempts of blocking the tribune (of course), protests at the streets (though not massive) scandals, intrigues, demarches (all as always). We can assume that everything will be in the "best" traditions of Ukrainian parliamentarism: delays before the deadlines until the foreign donors or the street protests will declare about the need for the adoption of those decisions, and then the "package vote" for documents that many deputies did not dare to read.
There are, however, the president and his joker up his sleeve: the Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko, in whose hands now focused the most effective stimulants to work and compromise. No doubt that he will use them. Number of detentions and suspicions of best people in the country will increase; corrupt officials (large and small) will be hazardously arrested - how many of them will go to prison, and how many will run away – it’s not even important. Ukrainian justice will stay long in the state of suspended animation (sorry, state of reforming), despite it should immediately show some results. The IMF will not give us money, but Putin is still and always inventing something, to destroy the "Ukrainian junta".
However, not everything is bad in our house. Such hot political autumn is even useful for Ukraine. Ukrainians like autumn because for some reason only during this season they are able to bring to authorities their understanding of the situation and their needs. Of course, we would like to immediately feel the changes. But the system is too strong, and sabotage against it is still very timid. We can hardly expect miraculous transformations in Ukraine, while panic is not yet necessary. And we have some reasons for cautious optimism. Certain mechanisms, in spite of everything, are still running, and they grudgingly are trying to work, so there is a slow change in the Ukrainian state machine.
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