Read the original text at Facebook of Dmyro Bachevsky.
Experts put forward a variety of versions of causes of escalation of situation in Avdiivka. But in fact, there are no new reasons for that. Everything goes according to Kremlin’s plan. We have witnessed it recently on Svitlodarsk arc, and we see it today.
In order to understand the logic of the Kremlin, it is necessary to realize that lifting of sanctions is not its main goal. Otherwise, they would never have developed this geopolitical game. The main purpose is to gain recognition of Russia's right to a sphere of influence in which one has no right to poke its nose. Therefore, escalation of the conflict is always pursuing the same information tasks.
- Remind the world that Russia is capable of creating a serious headache. Today, Russia is relevant to the world with two things: when it generates the problem and when it helps to solve them. And only these two points are now able to get the world to reckon with Russia: the more problems it creates, the more important it becomes for others.
The problem is that Ukraine is in an awkward situation: we cannot respond the way Kremlin wants. Moscow has one expectation: it attacks and kills as many of our soldiers, as it can, it creates a humanitarian crisis, we begin to shout it to the world, the UN connect, OSCE, PACE, Merkel, Hollande... Goal achieved: the problem again comes to the top, and Russia inflates the conflict to the scale of universal catastrophe.
- Press on Europe in order to force Ukraine to fulfill the Minsk agreement on the terms of Russia. For the Kremlin, it is especially important after the recent statements of the Ukrainian authorities that Kyiv would not carry the political part of the Minsk agreements without performing safety duties by the opposite side.
The Kremlin knows the psychology of Europeans and their reflexes understand that with each new escalation Europe rushes to do anything to solve the problem in any way, and begins to demand the implementation of the Minsk agreements. Naturally, the weaker would be responsible for fulfilling the tasks, someone that is more dependent, that is, Ukraine.
Thus, the Kremlin wants to break us with the help of Europe, and make it an accomplice in the surrender of Ukraine.
- Plunge our society into a new stress, test Ukrainian society psychologically, and strengthen the anti-war sentiment in Ukraine.
As I have repeatedly written, trite principle of carrots and sticks is incorporated in this technology. Thus, acute at the front is each time replaced by the calm and loud statements of our "peacekeepers" and "negotiators" who call to go to direct talks with the unrecognized republics to establish peace.
Each new exacerbation makes these "peacekeepers" leave in a dull silence and disappear from the information space for a week or two after the cease-fire to blow up the media with another news again. The same situation was during escalation on Svetlodarsk arc, and it will happen now. Wait for new "interesting" statements and initiatives.
- Strengthening the pro-Russian propaganda and misinformation in Europe. Kremlin always accuses the Ukrainian government of escalating the conflict, resulting in a bunch of arguments, "evidence" and "proof", and thereby misleads a huge number of people in the world.
Avdiivka today is just a new bargaining chip in Moscow’s game. And such aggravation will go further if we do not manage to break this vicious circle and impose our own agenda. We should not wait for the next occasion to show our the reaction, but sett the tone, forcing the Kremlin to react.