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After several months of lull, growth of the dollar has again resumed in Ukraine. There are several reasons for it: the results of the US presidential election, the political instability in Ukraine and the export-import operations. Bankers expect that the US currency may grow by up to 27.5 UAH.
Trump strengthened dollar
After the September devaluation, hryvnia remained stable for two months. However, in recent days the dollar began to strengthen again and rose to the level of 26 UAH at the exchange rate of the National Bank and 27 USD in banks. To do this, there are several reasons.
National Bank, although it does not meet today for the hryvnia against the dollar, still insists that there is no reason to panic. The regulator explains the fall hryvnia short-term impact on the domestic markets of the result of the US election. "Most of all the election results in the US react to oil prices. According to our forecasts, the price is for grains, oil and metals, which are the main export commodity Ukraine, react less significant and eventually escape the drop. So, in the case of temporary subsidence it will not be able to neutralize significant revenues from exports of new crop for the Ukrainian currency market," said the deputy head of the NBU Oleg Churiy.
Politics puts pressure on the exchange rate
The main reason for the devaluation is political instability. "It contributes to" heighten the devaluation moods "In addition, the exchange rate began to rise, and by increasing public demand, - says Treasury Head at "Industrialbank" Anton Maryuhnich. - Until December the market should calm down, and there will come the Christmas holidays, and the public will need cash hryvnia for gifts and other festive expenses."
Active information campaign against the National Bank also affected the devaluation. "In our opinion, the negative impact on the rate of the national currency have seen in recent days, the socio-political events in the country and directed against the leadership of the National Bank's information campaign. These factors gave rise to a certain panic in the currency market (mainly in the cash market). However, we consider the current rise of the dollar is situational phenomenon, which may persist for several days to several weeks, until the end of the year in the short term allow the strengthening of the dollar to the level 27,00-27,50 UAH," says head of treasury of VTB Bank Stanislav Verhgradsky.
Exports and imports have played their role
One of the main factors that influence the currency market became currency for export contracts received. "From November 10, revenue fell significantly - by about 25-30%. In terms of a very weak and small market, this fact can significantly affect the rate that we observed receipt of export proceeds unevenly, and that at such times the pressure on the national currency. November 11 was a public holiday in the US, so the dollar income did not exist. And despite the fact that many were closed on Thursday ahead of the weekend, at the beginning of this week formed a little pent-up demand. This factor could also reinforce the devaluation moods when America was earned after a long weekend, - says head of treasury operations Forward Bank Anna Tantsyura. - If we talk about the cash rate, which demonstrated outperformance and jumped yesterday by 30-40 kopecks per day, here, in addition to the interbank trend indicator played against the hryvnia payment of the deposit guarantee Fund. October 24, 2016 once again launched a series of payments on deposits of natural persons of a number of banks. These funds are likely to fall on the cash market. The stated payments will continue until the end of November."
Also activity of importers affect the rate. "The growth in the cash market can be explained by the seasonal factor. As a rule, in early November, the importers, who have no access to the interbank market to buy foreign currency in the cash market in order to prepare for the active business season before the holidays in December. In second last year half of November was also a jump in rate of cash dollar almost on the hryvnia, but in the first days of December the situation has stabilized and the rate returned to previous figures. It is possible that this year we should expect a similar situation. in early December, the demand for currency from importers subsides, but the exporters, on the contrary, will be required to sell the volume of foreign currency earnings," says principal analyst at Ukrsotsbank Andriy Prykhodko.