Brexit will displace Ukraine, Russia and other eastern challenges to the sidelines
In Brussels, Britain's exit will likely to be interpreted as a signal of the need for reform in EU
The situation with the exit of Britain from the European Union confronts the world with several new challenges.
To begin with, within the EU there appears a new theme that will displace Ukraine, Russia and other eastern challenges to the sidelines. Potential movement for independence of Scotland and other parts of the UK with the preservation / entry of these countries into the EU will transform the British theme to the TV series, which will fill the front pages of European publications.
Within the EU, the nature and dynamics of development of relations between the parties may be changed, because the exit of Britain increases the chances of Germany's leadership, and the significant part of the EU societies can't agree with it. Germany will stand in front of the expectations, demands and challenges, to which the German voters, as well as German institutions are not accustomed to.
In Brussels, Britain's exit will likely be interpreted as a signal of the need for reform in EU. Populists in the continent will get some more inspiration (and Russian money), and it is very likely that they'll become more active across the EU. Russia will feel more confident regarding Ukrainian issue and will start promote its agenda in the EU much stronger.
Some obvious scenarios for Europe:
- The collapse of the United Kingdom, exit of Scotland at least, and quite fast exit (they were deceived on the Scottish referendum on independence when promised that by staying in the UK, they will remain in a united Europe - and yesterday all the districts in Scotland voted for Remain, none voted for Leave).
- Britain will begin to finally slide to the periphery, in the future it will be no more than a, relatively speaking, bigger Norway.
- The EU is now has a very favorable moment: Britain is the obvious loser, a very nasty and intractable major player leaves the Union, there are great chances to consolidate the European area. But will Brussels be able to take advantage of this chance - this is the big question.
- In Britain will start such a chaos that will weaken the position of eurosceptics in the continent, and people will point a finger at them and say, "Do you want such chaos here, like it is in Britain now?".
Kremlin is rejoicing, but there are tactical geniuses and strategic idiots sitting there and this vote is strategic, so they can't use its results properly for their future profit.
However, much in this situation depends on the behavior of the European Union politicians.
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