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At the weekend a considerable stir was caused by the negotiations of Ukrainian MP Nadiya Savchenko with the heads of the unrecognized "republics" DNR and LNR. It is reported that the meeting was secret and was organized by the secret services of the Russian Federation.
According to unofficial information (since the MP has refused to announce the theme of her talks), the members of the meeting were talking about the issue ofprisoners’ exchange, in particular, according to my information, it was the inclusion in the list of the exchange detained in January 2016 Donetsk scientist Igor Kozlovsky, who is suspected in espionage in self-proclaimed DNR republic.
"Unfortunately, over the last year prisoner exchange process had been actually stopped, for 11 months we exchanged about 20 people in total. The official communication channels become ineffective, and we have to increasingly resort to informal relations ", - said the source, who participates in the exchange of prisoners of war.
Of course, it is impossible to say exactly what was being said at the meeting of the people's deputy with people who are recognized as criminals in Ukraine– this is known only by the participants of the negotiations. But the very fact of holding such negotiations becomes a confirmation of not a new trend, which nevertheless has been recently demonstrated ever brighter.
We are talking about strongly pronounced lack of faith in the viability of the Minsk process, and it's not even about militants’ shooting in Donbas contrary to the agreements. And Armed Forces are suffering losses, and for this we had somehow become accustomed. There is another problem: the Minsk agreements show the inefficiency exactly in that for which they were officially concluded - the peaceful settlement of "Donbas issue."
But what should we do next? All the talks of the political sub-group – about the political future of uncontrolled part of Donbas in the form of elections, as well as the economic sub-groups – about the start of Ukrainian banks operation, and hence the region's integration into the economic sphere of Ukraine, has long reached a deadlock, and what will be the way out of it – is still unknown.
The above-mentioned negotiations on the exchange of prisoners of war, as the cause of the people's deputy Nadiya Savchenko talks with "heads" of the self-proclaimed "People's Republics", in spite of all this speculative threads were also clearly "stalled".
It seems that non-random yesterday's statement of the first Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk about transition from the Minsk format to a certain Moral authorities Committee of 10, consisted of 5 people from each side.
In mid-November, the head of the liaison group on Ukrainian talks in Minsk, the second President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma announced his possible withdrawal from the negotiations which has shown to be ineffective. This step would lead at least to a serious crisis of the Minsk process, if not to its collapse.
Of course, we should not take seriously such proposals, but both of its authors are rather experienced politicians to disclose such utopian ideas. Rather, it looks like a signal sent to society, a kind of "sensing" of soil: how society basically refers to a possible change of format and, if positive, to develop this format. It is understandable that such a replacement - it is not one month’s case, and it’s a bit silly to declare the real proposals, so that's only clearly unviable propositions sounded in Minsk.
But the political struggle in Ukraine did not stop, and there will always be forces which are willing to offer an alternative to the status quo. If society is tired of the war, does not believe in the possibility of a peaceful settlement of the problem within the framework of the Minsk process, then other forces certainly will try to offer an alternative, earlier that authorities will make it.
However, we can hardly suspect the people's deputy Nadiya Savchenko in such intrigues, yet her scale and the absence of serious political experience do not allow her to perform such delicate tasks, such as searching for a new negotiating format, bypassing the officials. Her only problem is that because of inexperience and emotion she does not consider it necessary to conceal her contacts.
But this does not mean that such attempts will not be made in the future, and we are unlikely to find out about them so quickly.