Minsk-2: failed peace initiatives (part 2)
The real reason of Minsk deal failure is that the peace agreements are meaningful only when there is a mutual interest of the parties
Read the original text at restoring-donbass.org.
Naturally, the situation in Donbas is slowly drifting in the direction of "frozen conflict." Ukrainian President and his entourage seems that this is not a bad solution. But the events in the outside world require lightning-fast and correct decisions to be made.
Recently, BBC showed the reality show, interviewing the world's experts on the possibility of a nuclear skirmish between Russia and the United States. It was proven that an "umbrella" protecting Western civilization from the Russian "Squid" and "Dolphins" is breakable. The world began to probe the most dangerous scenario…
Against this background, against its will, Ukraine might become a part of the deal between the powerful world countries, as it happened to Poland and the Czech Republic in the twentieth century. The peace plan is already being discussed by leading diplomats. Moreover, it will be beneficial to the world's leading players, but disadvantageous for Kyiv or Donbas. The plan is close to the idea of a French diplomat Pierre Morel, but compressed and crumpled, de facto it freezes the situation, preserving "bedlam" in the Ukrainian domestic situation.
How to resolve the conflict in Donbas and save the country?
Does Kyiv have some time for decision-making? A little bit. We must restart the legislative branch of government and hold elections to the Rada as soon as possible. And then vote amendments to the Constitution (on the harmonization of the situation in Donetsk and Luhansk).
In winter these changes must be adopted. It is a way to maintain the status quo with individual regions: they will receive economic decentralization and understanding that Kyiv does not try to control them in the "manual" mode.
Only after a clear delineation of powers of Donbas local authorities, it is possible to start the process for holding elections. If some majoritarian deputies get in the new parliament, it can be considered as the end of the first stage of conciliation. The second stage will be an amnesty (the format of "all for all" - as it was in Croatia), and the formation of the People's Police in Donbas (from local citizens), and the rehabilitation of infrastructure.
In parallel, the mediation dialogue should be returned to the level of the "Big Twenty." Such proposals sounded at the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, but then "Norman format" was chosen; it involves a very limited number of negotiators. Thus, Ukraine will keep its interests, Russia will be an active negotiator, which is beneficial for maintaining its reputation. And the West will show its best side, having the opportunity to raise another strong economy in its eastern borders.
The real reason of Minsk deal failure is that the peace agreements are meaningful only when there is a mutual interest of the parties in their implementation. It is when you do not need a strict supervisor looking after the parties of the conflict.
Ukrainians, unfortunately, continue to think in terms of adolescent maximalism: black vs. white, me vs. the other, right vs. wrong...
We have not yet learned to appreciate the important, adult, mature things like dialogue and compromise. We have not yet realized that without a responsible approach to the problem, the peace cannot be achieved.
We are afraid of the future. The future that is different from our understanding of it. We refuse to discuss other options for ending the conflict. An average Ukrainian is waiting for the crushing victory of the party he supports. It means the prolongation of a doomed and tragic present.
Donetsk militants hand over another 23 hostages 19 October, 15:31
Donbas conflict: 18 attacks reported 17 October, 23:58
29 attacks in Donbas region during previous 24 hours, - ATO HQ 18 October, 09:31
43 ceasefire violations in Donbas reported 16 October, 12:06
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